Business must make positive case for staying in the EU

Outlook Nursing big losses from a late surge in bets on the Tories, bookmakers did at least prove once again that they know more about elections than the opinion pollsters. When it comes to the European Union, however, there is more of a consensus between the two. Pollsters currently suggest that only a minority of voters favour a “Brexit”; bookies put the chances of them being wrong about that at only about 30 per cent. That’s a bet Panmure Gordon’s Simon French wants to lay, because he rates the chance of it happening at no more than 10 per cent.

Mr French points out that the inhabitants of these islands have been voting for the status quo of late, whether at Westminster, where they have kept the Conservatives in power, or in Scotland, where they voted against independence. This bodes well for those of us who support this country remaining in the EU, but we shouldn’t get too complacent.

It should also be remembered that support for independence in Scotland surged during the last part of that campaign, prompting a phalanx of Westminster’s finest to head north, armed with concessions.

To these eyes, 10 per cent underestimates the danger, and the “in” campaign will need wit and energy to secure a very necessary victory. It won’t be short of support from the business community, which is horrified at the prospect of a Brexit and the potential implications that may have for access to the markets of the world’s biggest trading bloc.

But its message needs to be carefully thought out, and nuanced. HSBC’s Douglas Flint has already called a potential exit from Europe a thoroughly bad thing, largely for the selfish purposes of his bank. It will be cited as an excuse if HSBC decides to quit the UK. More dark warnings about a British walkout – predictions of disaster and worse – may do more harm than good by annoying the electorate, particularly if viewed as being motivated by self-interest. Business needs to set out a convincing case for staying in. But it needs to think carefully before making it.