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Jason Nissé: Comedians, pork barrels, New Hampshire and Byers. It's a euro debate

Sunday 19 May 2002 00:00 BST
Comments

I've never had the pleasure of lunch with Stephen Byers. But had I dined with him, and been told something off the record, I would not have dropped him in the soup so comprehensively as the female political journalists who broke bread with the Transport Secretary on Thursday.

Though Number 10 is publicly trying to stuff the cat back into the bag, it seems the Cabinet's leading Europhile is being used to do what the US financial regulators call "conditioning the market". This tactic, which is, of course, illegal, is to pre-release financial information that softens up investors for bad news. So the largely Eurosceptic British public is being softened up for a campaign to take the pound into the single currency.

In the next few days and weeks the following things will happen: pro-euro heavyweights such as Kenneth Clarke and Michael Heseltine will emerge from the undergrowth; pro-euro business leaders including Sir Martin Sorrell and Lord Marshall will get on their hind legs and make statements; and the largely supine Britain-in-Europe group will at last begin doing what it should always have been doing, campaigning in earnest.

On the other side of the fence, the "No" lobbyists will also launch their offensive. They've already signed up comedians Vic Reeves and Harry Enfield for a TV campaign; and they will have the force of Iain Duncan Smith and Lord Hanson behind their guns, and News International and the Telegraph titles leading the charge. Their credibility will be helped by a series of distinguished City economists who will put their arguments against the euro to the nation.

And what arguments will we see? There will be lots of pointing to the weakness of the eurozone economies (Germany in particular) and the cheating by countries such as Italy and Germany to meet the euro's financial criteria. There will be worries about Europe's pension-fund shortfalls and the expansion of the European Union to the east. All of these issues have to be addressed, but the "No" side's trump cards are paper tigers.

They will argue that monetary union is doomed because previous attempts have failed, with the exception of the dollarisation of the US, which needed a large dose of "pork-barrel" politics (using Federal funds to bail out poorer areas). But this ignores the fact that monetary union has not been tried on a substantial scale for more than a century. The speed of information flows and financial transfers means Europe is much more one economy than Britain was 50 years ago.

The final "No" argument is tax. They say you can't have economic union without tax harmonisation. Well, tell that to the inhabitants of New Hampshire. They have much lower taxes than their neighbours in Massachusetts, yet both use dollars and get along just fine.

One consequence of Mr Byers' "gaff" is that the "No" side could go early with these arguments and run out of ammunition by the time the "Yes" campaign is ready. Or he could have made just another Byers boo-boo.

Sky-high City fees

My record of having flown with airlines that have become defunct is becoming rather enviable. To such classics as British Caledonian, Dan Air, Debonair (its last flight from Barcelona, no less), Ansett (where the in-flight catering was a pie and a beer) and TWA, I will soon add Go. My trip to Bologna on the budget airline will be my first, but at least I will get in just before it is subsumed by easyJet in July.

Go's short life as an independent firm has been a bean-feast for the City. On top of the double-your-money investments for 3i and Barclays Private Equity come the deal costs; £6.5m for easyJet's rights issue (itself a lot, because it will be a deep discount issue so will need none of that "money-for-old-rope" sub-underwriting) and £9.5m for advice. While this includes VAT, an insurance charge and, easyJet says, stamp duty, ultimately it boils down to some £6m going to two firms of advisers (CSFB and Greenhills), two firms of lawyers and two firms of accountants.

Go was created only last year, so the due diligence then would have been quite accurate. Similarly, a young firm should have fewer legal issues outstanding than one that's been operating for decades. So you can only surmise that the advisers saw easyJet coming and used the opportunity to make up for the last few lean months.

I just hope these fees don't filter through to the fares.

j.nisse@independent.co.uk

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