Emerging markets still risk crisis

HE RISK of a fresh financial crisis in emerging markets remains far higher than normal according to Goldman Sachs, the investment bank.

In a new analysis it puts the probability of a crisis at nearly one in six, with the Czech Republic, Taiwan, Turkey and Venezuela among the countries most at risk. However, it foresees a no more than normal risk of crisis in China, which many analysts have feared will be the next market to fall victim to the continuing global turmoil.

In addition, the 16 per cent probability of a currency crisis, while above the normal 9 per cent, is down from its dangerous peak at the end of 1998. This had been elevated by the risks in Brazil, which duly proved correct.