Recession looms

THERE IS now a 40 per cent chance of a recession in the UK, according to Professor Hashem Pesaran of Cambridge University, a leading economist. He warned yesterday that the chances of meeting the inflation target without damaging economic growth were "rather low" in the medium term.

Using a new model of the UK economy, Professor Pesaran also found there was a 63 per cent probability of a cut in interest rates by the middle of next yea