'Wise men' agree to disagree

THE 'seven wise men' appointed to advise the Chancellor of the Exchequer agree on average with the Treasury that the economy will grow by about 1 per cent this year, but their individual forecasts differ significantly.

While Wynne Godley, of Cambridge University, feels that recovery will stay subdued, Patrick Minford, of Liverpool, expects a sharp rebound, despite negligible growth this year. Mr Minford and Tim Congdon, of Lombard Street Research, are both optimistic about medium-term growth and inflation. However, Mr Godley believes that growth will be constrained by a widening trade gap and calls for another 10 per cent fall in the pound.

(Chart showing the forecasts of the 'seven wise men' omitted)