Schools may be forced to close as pupil numbers drop

Councils will have to consider cost-cutting, merging with other schools and shutting, think tank says

Schools are set to lose funding as pupil numbers drop (PA)

Some schools in England could be forced to close because falling pupil numbers will mean they receive less money, analysis suggests.

Schools could lose more than £1bn in funding by 2030 as child tallies decline, according to the Education Policy Institute (EPI) think tank. Most school funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis.

The think tank’s report says schools may be forced to consider “cost-cutting measures”, merging with other schools and closing.

According to the institute, Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and London are projected to have the largest falls in pupil numbers at secondary schools.

But in the West Midlands, South East England and the East of England, the number of pupils is projected to rise.

The largest rise in pupils between 2022-23 and 2028-29 is projected to be in central Bedfordshire.

Researchers said if all schools received a 0.5 per cent real-terms increase in per-pupil funding each year, overall cash for state schools would fall to £41.6bn by 2029-30, down from a peak of £42.7bn in 2024-25.

London councils warned last year that school leaders and local authorities could be forced to merge or close schools as a result of falling pupil numbers and funding pressures.

Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and London are projected to have the largest falls in pupil numbers at secondary schools (Getty)

Applications for places at primary schools in the capital fell last year due to a drop in the birth rate, as well as families leaving the city after the pandemic and Brexit, councils said.

The EPI report said: “As pupil numbers fall, many schools will see their budgets contract as a result.

“However… reductions in class sizes do not bring about proportional decreases in staffing costs, school supplies, energy bills and the other day-to-day costs of running a school.

“Faced with this challenge, some of the most severely affected schools will struggle to stay viable. As these schools feel the squeeze, they will be forced to consider alternatives: mergers with other schools, difficult cost-cutting measures, and ultimately school closures.”

The think tank has called on policymakers to “carefully consider” the effect of changes to the national funding formula (NFF).

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said: “It would be a waste to allow smaller schools to close, only for there to be a need for more places in those areas further down the line.”

Additional reporting by PA