Coronavirus lockdown delay led to high death toll and ‘aggravated’ threat to care homes, expert says

'The government met its main target. The NHS was not overwhelmed. Yet the death toll is high'

The delay in imposing the coronavirus lockdown led to a high death toll and “aggravated” the threat to care homes, an expert has claimed.

Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, a leading expert in strategic studies at King’s College London, said the government followed public opinion – rather than shaping it – in the early days of the outbreak before lockdown restrictions were announced on 23 March.

Writing in an article for Survival, the journal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Sir Lawrence acknowledged the government achieved its objective of avoiding the NHS becoming overwhelmed by waiting to enforce the shutdown.

However he said the decision could be to blame for the UK’s high death toll – and that not enough attention was given to the threat to care homes, which have suffered devastating outbreaks across the country.

He wrote: “With government following rather than leading public opinion, a graduated approach was abandoned.

“The collective effort to suppress the spread of the coronavirus began before government announcements and had an effect before 23 March.

“After 23 March, the measures enjoyed wide public support and compliance was good.

“The government met its main target. The NHS was not overwhelmed. Yet the death toll is high.

“One reason for this, hard to quantify, was the delayed moving to lockdown.

“Another was simply that London is a global city and Europe’s largest.

“But it is now clear that while preparing the NHS for an influx of cases, the threat to care homes was not only given insufficient attention, but even aggravated.”

Professor Lawrence said the initial advice “may have fitted the government’s preference to avoid the social and economic costs of more stringent measures” but, he added: “It is always the responsibility of ministers to interrogate advice and also to read movements in public opinion, in this case becoming anxious and impatient with half-measures.”

The latest Department of Health figures show a total of 32,065 people have now died in hospitals, care homes and the wider community after testing positive for coronavirus as of 5pm on Sunday.

This is an increase of 210 from 31,855 a day earlier.

However, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the number of deaths involving Covid-19 registered across the UK currently stands at 33,021.

This includes 29,710 deaths that occurred in England and Wales up to 24 April – and which had been registered up to May.

The figures from NHS England show a further 3,964 hospital patients who tested positive for Covid-19 died between 25 April and 10 May – which, together with the total figure of 33,021 registered deaths, suggests the overall death toll for the UK is just under 37,000.

Additional reporting by Press Association.