Triple whammy’ of viruses could push NHS to breaking point this winter

NHS is short of 84,000 staff, according to new report by Academy of Medical Sciences

The NHS could face a huge spike in virus-related admissions (PA)

Measures to control the coronavirus have left the UK susceptible to a “triple whammy” of infectious viruses this winter that could push the NHS to breaking point, a new report commissioned by the government’s chief scientific adviser has warned.

The work by 29 experts for the Academy of Medical Sciences says time is running out to prepare the UK for the winter season, when a combination of Covid-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) could overwhelm hospitals.

The effect of social distancing measures and lockdown means a much larger group of people susceptible to flu and RSV could be exposed in the coming months, leading to a sudden spike in infections.

In the worst-case scenario of a flu outbreak, the level of infections could be more than twice as bad as a typical year and may lead to up to 60,000 deaths if no action is taken.

This would come on top of Covid-19 cases and with hospitals already lacking enough staff, beds and capacity to cope. In a typical winter, NHS bed capacity regularly exceeds 95 per cent, when a safe level is 85 per cent.

The report, commissioned by Sir Patrick Vallance, estimates that there is a shortage of almost 84,000 NHS staff and 2,500 GPs.

A spike in infections would also mean more cancelled operations and the NHS backlog growing even larger.

However, modelling is not a sure-fire prediction, with scientists warning that it is hard to calculate what will happen as society reopens and people begin to mix.

The experts say Covid testing should be expanded to include tests for RSV and flu, with doctors able to get fast results to distinguish between the illnesses and treat flu with antiviral medication.

They also call for more financial support to allow people to self-isolate when infected with Covid-19, and to bring in new staff.

Professor Azra Ghani, from Imperial College London, told a briefing of journalists: “Compared to a normal flu year, we could see somewhere in the region of an epidemic that is one and a half to two times that normal year. In a normal year, according to the estimates from Public Health England, there's between 10,000 and 30,000 deaths from flu. So this again could present a substantial impact on the NHS as we head into winter.”

She said similar spikes could be seen with RSV, which normally hospitalises 20,000 children under the age of 5 each year.

This trend was seen in Western Australia when they ended Covid restrictions.

“What is clear is that the triple whammy of these infections, on top of the backlog of routine care, is going to potentially disrupt services in the coming winter and likely put a severe strain on the NHS and its staff,” said Prof Ghani.

A lot depends, she added, on how effective the flu vaccination programme will be, whether the flu virus mutates, and how the Covid wave pans out.

Professor Dame Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, said: “We are moving into a new and uncertain era as society opens up. We are all going to have to make decisions about what risk we are prepared to live with – and we need to empower people with clear information and support to do this.

“When rates of Covid-19 are high, physical distancing and wearing face coverings in crowded indoor spaces alongside working from home when possible are sensible measures that will also protect us from other respiratory viruses this winter. We all need to do our bit to protect each other.”