Coronavirus: Experts lower projection of UK death toll, but still predict 23,000 to die from Covid-19 by August

Experts praise IMHE for publishing updated models

Scientists have lowered their projection of the number of people expected to die from the coronavirus in the UK after predicting the country could become the worst-hit in Europe.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said the UK would see over 66,000 deaths during the “first wave” of the Covid-19 pandemic, up to 4 August.

The bleak projection suggested deaths in the UK would peak with an estimated 2,932 deaths in a single 24-hour period on Friday, 17 April.

However, new research from the IHME has revised those projections down from 66,314 to 23,791 — a reduction of 42,523.

Other experts have praised the IMHE for publishing updated models, which take into account the various possible outcomes based on the number of hospital and intensive care beds available to meet demand.

Compared to the initial model, the revised prediction says 34,318 hospital beds will be needed instead of over 102,000. Currently, 17,765 are available, a shortfall of 16,553.

Similarly, the revised model says 8,643 ICU beds would be required. The UK currently has 6,781, a shortage of 1,862.

The model also said 7,731 ventilators would be needed, though said it was currently unclear how well-stocked the UK is.

“It is beyond question that the UK will suffer a very high number of deaths in this first wave,” said Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and Professor of Structural Biology at the University of Oxford.

“Predicting the nature of the epidemic is important in guiding hospital planning, evaluating public health interventions and levelling with the public.

“Covid-19 is far from over – if we are to improve our response, we must draw the correct lessons from what has worked and failed here and what has worked and failed in other countries.”

Commenting on the IMHE’s latest projection, Prof Naismith said: “On 8 April, the IHME website gave a central prediction of about 60,000 deaths in the UK from Covid-19 by 1 May. The IHME made very clear on their website in simple graphs the full range of possible outcomes, from roughly 25,000 to 138,000 deaths by 1 May.

“As of 14 April, the central forecast is now roughly 23,000 by 1 May, with a range from roughly 14,000 to 50,000. This is the second significant update to the predictions for the UK since 8 April.”

He concluded: “The IHME are high quality scientists who are explicit about the limitations and uncertainties in their models.

“I strongly support the publication of their models and ranges – ‘all models are wrong, and some are useful’.

“The IHME graphs are easily understood by anyone with any claim to scientific knowledge and the IHME models for the UK improve with more data – I hope media coverage of their models does too.”

More than one in five deaths in England and Wales have been linked to the coronavirus, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.

Covid-19 was mentioned on 3,475 death certificates – including hospital, care home and community deaths - in the week ending 3 April.

It means the outbreak has pushed the death toll in England and Wales to its highest level since official weekly figures began in 2005.

Meanwhile, the Department of Health said 12,107 patients have died in hospital after testing positive for the virus in the UK as of 5pm on Monday, up 778 from the previous day’s total, as confirmed cases reached 93,873.

The government has said it is too soon to lift the lockdown measures put in place to contain the spread of the virus, but on Monday the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, said the latest data suggested the UK was “starting to win this struggle”.