Coronavirus spread ‘stabilising’ at 50,000 new daily infections, new figures suggest

‘The infection rate has increased in recent weeks, but the rate of increase is less steep compared with previous weeks,’ says ONS

The spread of coronavirus across the UK population appears to have stabilised at around 50,000 new infections a day, the latest figures show, indicating a levelling off in the steep rise of cases across England.

There were an estimated 45,700 new cases per day in private homes in the week up to 31 October, down from the previous week’s estimate of 51,900, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

In total, 618,700 people are thought to have been infected with the virus during the most recent week – equivalent to one in 90.

“Incidence appears to have stabilised at around 50,000 new infections per day,” the ONS said. “The infection rate has increased in recent weeks, but the rate of increase is less steep compared with previous weeks.”

The positivity rate also appears to be levelling off in older teenagers and young adults – suggesting this group has passed the peak of their infections – but continues to rise for all other age groups.

But Ruth Studley, head of analysis for the Covid-19 infection survey, said younger people remain “the most likely to be infected”.

There have been increases in the positivity rate across all but one region in England, the northeast. The highest infection rates remain in the northwest and Yorkshire and the Humber.

Ms Studely added: “At a national level we are seeing infections slow across England and Wales but they are still increasing.”

The figures suggest that the tier 3 restrictions implemented by the government may have proved effective in slowing down the transmission of the virus, before England was pushed into a second national lockdown earlier this week.

The statistics do not include people staying in hospitals or care homes and are based on more than 689,000 swab tests gathered from across the UK. People with and without symptoms were tested.

The ONS looks to estimate infection numbers in the community beyond those who have been tested, giving an estimate of prevalence that is unaffected by testing capacity.

Separate data from the Zoe Covid Symptom Study app, run by King’s College London, suggests there were an average of 42,049 daily new symptomatic cases in the UK over the two weeks up to 1 November.

Researchers behind the study said that the UK’s R rate, which represents the average number of people someone could infect after contracting the virus, is currently 1.0.

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College, said daily cases were falling in the north of England and Scotland, and cases overall were moving in the “right direction”.

He said they were a “positive sign that we have passed the peak of this second wave”, adding: “We urge everyone to respect the restrictions and help get the number of cases down as soon as possible to help the NHS, end the lockdown and get us in good shape for December.”

Earlier, James Naismith, professor of structural biology at the University of Oxford, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that NHS Test and Trace had made no difference to the spread of Covid-19.

Data shows the system reached just 59.9 per cent of close contacts of people who tested positive for coronavirus in the week ending 28 October.

“It hasn't been effective at all,” Prof Naismith said. “The only ways we are currently able to control infection spreading are social restrictions.

“Tracking and tracing hasn’t really made any difference to the spread of the epidemic.”