Covid cases continue to fall in England but ‘uncertainty’ around regional trends

Estimated 1 in 220 individuals infected with Covid-19 between 21 and 27 February, says Office for National Statistics

Coronavirus cases are continuing to fall across England, though there is some uncertainty surrounding regional trends, new data show.

An estimated 1 in 220 individuals were infected with the virus between 21 and 27 February, according to the latest research published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - the equivalent of 248,100 people.

The figure is down from around one in 145, or 373,700 people, for the previous week, and is the lowest figure since the start of October, when one in 240 were estimated to have been infected with Covid-19.

Britain’s R rate has meanwhile risen to between 0.7 and 0.9 - up from 0.6-0.9 - though this indicates the epidemic is still shrinking.

Under the current estimates, for every 10 individuals who catch Covid, a further seven to nine people will become infected.

Despite the falling rates, the number of cases in England remains high compared to last summer. In the week to 25 August, around one in 2,000 people had coronavirus.

The government's Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which calculates the R rate, warned: "Although the epidemic continues to decrease nationally, there may be more variation in transmission locally, with some indications that the rate of decline in infections could be slowing in some areas.”

The ONS said the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the latest figures had decreased in all regions except for northeast England, the East Midlands and eastern England, where it said the trend was uncertain.

Northeast England had the highest proportion of people of any region likely to test positive for coronavirus in the week to February 27 - around one in 150 people.

The West Midlands had the next highest estimate at one in 160, while the figure was one in 185 for the East Midlands; one in 190 for northwest England; one in 195 for London; one in 225 for Yorkshire and the Humber; one in 260 for eastern England; one in 340 for southeast England, and one in 365 for southwest England.

In Wales, the latest estimate was one in 285, down from 205, and in Northern Ireland it was one in 325, down from one in 195.

The estimate for Scotland for the week to 27 February was around one in 335 people, down from one in 225.

The ONS data is based on swabs taken from people in households, regardless of whether they have symptoms or not. It does not include care homes, hospitals and other institutional settings.

Because of this, it is seen as a more accurate reflection of the current state of the epidemic in the UK.

Test and trace data released on Thursday showed a 19 per cent decrease in cases from the previous week, but the system does not account for asymptomatic infections within the population – a key driver of the Covid crisis.

Meanwhile, there are currently 12,136 people in hospital with Covid-19 in the UK – a significant fall from the peak of the winter wave, though health officials have warned that the NHS still remains under pressure.

Some 757 patients were hospitalised with coronavirus on 28 February, according to the most recent data.

Earlier on Friday, a government scientific adviser said society will need to learn to live with a "substantial" degree of Covid-19 mortality.

Professor Andrew Hayward, from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the number of deaths will continue to drop as vaccination kicks in, and death rates could begin to look more like those for seasonal flu.

Other experts, including Professor Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia, have said the UK can expect a wave of deaths next winter, mostly among the unvaccinated and those for whom vaccines do not provide total protection.

Prof Hayward told Times Radio: "I think given the societal trade-offs, we are going to have to live with a degree of mortality that will be substantial.

"I think it will get less over time as more people get vaccinated, and as more people get immune, and I do believe that we've been through the worst of this."

Prof Hayward said he does not think the new coronavirus variants will completely evade the protection offered by vaccines.

A study this week found that between 25 per cent and 61 per cent of people in the Brazilian city of Manaus were susceptible to reinfection with the P1 variant, which has also been found in six people in the UK.

Vaccine manufacturers are working on updated vaccines to tackle variants, which could be fast-tracked for approval by the autumn.

Prof Hayward said: "The vaccines will still take the sting out of it, if you like, and reduce the case fatality rates.

"Of course we have the technology to update the vaccines and I think that's where we're going really, a situation that will be much more like flu. The numbers of deaths will be much more like flu, the approach to surveillance of new strains and development of new vaccines and regular annual vaccinations will be like that.

"And we will get back to normal."