More than 6,000 Covid deaths averted due to UK’s vaccine programme, study shows

Results of Public Health England study ‘give us hope’ and reinforce ‘importance of getting the jab as soon as we are eligible’

Some 6,100 deaths from Covid-19 have been avoided among people aged 70 and over due to the UK’s fast-moving vaccination programme so far, new analysis shows.

On the same day that the national coronavirus emergency incident level was lowered, a new government study has outlined the “significant impact” the Covid-19 vaccines are having in England, where cases, hospitalisations and daily deaths are continuing to fall.

The research, conducted by Public Health England, said around 5,900 deaths had been averted among the over-80s and 200 in those aged 70 to 79.

Between 8 December and the end of January, more than four million vaccine doses were given to people within these age groups. Since, more than 28 million first doses have been administered across the UK.

With the vaccines also thought to be effective in reducing transmission of the virus, the 6,100 figure could prove to be an underestimate, raising the possibility that thousands more lives have been saved since the beginning of Britain’s mass immunisation programme.

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The analysis compared the observed number of deaths with the number that would have been expected if the vaccine had not been given during this time, plus allowing 31 days for the effect of vaccination on deaths to be observed.

Expected deaths with Covid-19 were estimated using real-world data on how effective the vaccines are.

Health secretary Matt Hancock said the results of the study “give us hope” and reinforce the “importance of getting the jab as soon as we are eligible”. He added: “Vaccines save lives.”

Warwick University modelling contained within the PHE report suggests the vaccines have so far prevented around 6,600 deaths across all age groups.

Separate figures published by NHS England, and combined with population estimates from the Office for National Statistics, show that a quarter of people in England aged 80 and over are now fully vaccinated against Covid-19.

An estimated 25.5 per cent of people in this age group had received both doses of the vaccine as of 21 March 21.

In some regions the proportion is even higher, with an estimate of 26.1 per cent for southwest England and 30.6 per cent for northeast England and Yorkshire.

People aged 80 and over were among the first groups on the priority list for Covid-19 vaccines, with initial doses being offered from early December.

Second doses must follow within 12 weeks of the first, meaning an increasing number of people in this age group will be due another jab in the next few weeks.

One in five people aged 16 to 49 in England are also likely to have had their first dose.

Meanwhile, case rates in England have risen among children and teenagers, according to new data from PHE, but are at their lowest levels since August in the over-70s.

For 10 to 19-year-olds, the rate stood at 100.7 cases per 100,000 in the seven days to 21 March, the highest rate among the age groups, and up week-on-week from 79.7.

Among five to nine-year-olds it rose from 39.9 to 63.5, but for children aged four and under it fell from 34.9 to 32.4.

This follows the reopening of schools across England and an accompanying surge in rapid testing. Fifty six of 149 council areas saw an uptick in cases in the week ending 21 March, PHE said, but these increases were exclusive to school children.

On a regional level, infection rates have fallen across the board – except in Yorkshire and the Humber. Here, 110.4 cases per 100,000 were picked up last week. Rates are lowest in the south west, at 28.4 per 100,000.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, PHE’s medical director, warned that cases appeared to be plateauing in some parts of the country. “We must not drop our guard now after so much effort by so many,” she added. “We need only look to Europe to see how easy it is for things to take a turn for the worse.”

The fall in cases and hospitalisations across Britain has helped ease pressure on the NHS, which announced earlier on Thursday that it is reducing the national alert level for England from level four to level three.

Some 4,005 people are currently hospitalised with Covid-19 in England, down from the peak of 34,000 in mid-January.

“That is still about 400 more Covid patients than we had this same day a year ago,” said Sir Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England.

“Nevertheless that very sharp decrease in the number of patients with Covid in hospital is a consequence of both declining infection rates across the community and the impact that’s now being felt from the vaccination programme.”