Midterms 2018: Influential poll tracker shifts in favour of Democrats in House races

Since October 30th, 9 seats have become more likely to become occupied by Democrats, according to this prediction service

Kristin Hugo
New York
Monday 05 November 2018 22:54
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US Midterms 2018: The five big questions

A midterm election forecast has shifted, predicting even more success for Democrats in the House of Representatives.

Estimates had already favoured Democrats to win several more House seats, enough to take control of the house.

Now, the Cook Report says that voters are leaning even more blue in general.

The Hill reports that three races in Texas and west Virginia have moved from solid Republican to likely Republican. Two in Florida went from likely to leaning Republican.

Two races in Pennsylvania and Georgia moved from leaning Republican to toss-up. One race in Washington moved from toss-up to leaning Democrat. Another seat was moved from leaning to likely Democrat.

Only one race, in Arizona, shifted in favour of Republicans, from likely Democrat to leaning Democrat.

The most recent Cook Report before this one was released on October 30th.

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The prediction website FiveThirtyEight also updated its House of Representatives win predictions on Monday morning with a slight shift over previous predictions. It predicted that Democrats will gain an average of 36 seats in the house. On Friday, the website predicted an average gain of 35 seats for Democrats. Predictions suggest that Republicans will keep control of the Senate.

In order to win control of the House, Democrats need to gain 23 seats.

While the Cook Report and FiveThirtyEight draw on a variety of polls and data sources to come up with their predictions, they can never be sure about who will win until the votes are counted. Political sentiment aside, voter turnout can swing elections. This year, the Cook report expects an abnormally large turnout.

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