Tory MPs unwilling to declare open support

FEWER than half of all Conservative MPs are willing to declare for John Major, according to a MORI poll for the Independent on Sunday.

Although the Prime Minister scored highly - with 82 per cent support - among those who responded, 64 of the 160 MPs approached refused to answer.

For Mr Major, that introduces a dangerous element of volatility into the election. By no means all the 64 who refused to answer can be assumed to be a threat to him, because some MPs always refuse to participate in such surveys. One declined to co-operate unless he was paid.

But MPs considering a voteagainst Mr Major or an abstention will be wary of spelling out their intentions in advance, even to a polling organisation. They would risk becoming targets of Mr Major's campaign team, and could face criticism from constituency associations.

Some of those who hope to mount a challenge against Mr Major may be wary of revealing the extent of their likely support since this could prompt Mr Major to redouble his efforts.

MORI On-Line spoke to 96 Conservative MPs, including 14 ministers, by telephone on Friday and Saturday.

Sixty-two MPs believe that Mr Major will be challenged, with only six convinced that he will be re-elected unopposed.

Malcolm Rifkind, Secretary of State for Defence, emerged as the choice to take over from Douglas Hurd at the Foreign Office. Twenty-five MPs backed him, against 12 for Michael Portillo, the Secretary of State for Employment, six for Ian Lang and three for Michael Howard.

Of those who answered the question, 79 said they would back John Major in any leadership contest, three said they would be voting for another candidate and five indicated that they were undecided.

For the position of stalking horse in the election, Norman Lamont emerges as the clear favourite. Nearly one in five of those who answered believe he will emerge as a candidate.

But the MPs who spoke to MORI seem solidly behind the Prime Minister. Seventy-nine backed Mr Major, with only three saying they would vote for another candidate and five still undecided.

Although relatively few MPs agreed to answer, there is evidence that Mr Portillo is coming close to Mr Heseltine as the favoured successor in the Conservative Party. Asked about a second ballot, 37 MPs said they would still vote for the Prime Minister and 43 either didn't know or refused to answer the question. Mr Heseltine won the backing of only seven MPs, two more than Mr Portillo.