Which seats have the major party leaders visited during the campaign?
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have both visited more than 50 different constituencies.
Since day one of the election campaign, Rishi Sunak, Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Ed Davey have focused almost exclusively on visiting constituencies that are being defended by the Conservatives.
This is perhaps not a surprise, given the Tories won a near-landslide of seats at the last election in 2019, many of which Labour and the Lib Dems are hoping to gain on July 4.
But what is striking is the size of some of the Tory majorities in the places all three leaders have visited.
Rishi Sunak held events in 56 different constituencies from May 23, the first full day of the campaign, to the end of July 3, according to data compiled by the PA news agency.
Some 47 of these 56 seats are Conservative defences, based on notional results for the 2019 election that take into account the boundary changes that are in place this year.
The 47 Tory constituencies visited by Mr Sunak include 10 where his party is defending enormous notional majorities of more than 20,000, such as Hinckley & Bosworth in Leicestershire (22,851), Thirsk & Malton in North Yorkshire (23,337) and Honiton & Sidmouth in Devon (26,229).
In 31 of the 47 seats the Tory majority is over 10,000, including places like Macclesfield in Cheshire, which has been won by the Conservatives at every general election since 1918; Banbury in Oxfordshire, won by the Tories at every election since 1922; and Stratford-on-Avon in Warwickshire, won by the Conservatives at every election since 1950.
Meanwhile Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Ed Davey have campaigned in Tory-held constituencies that need huge swings in the share of the vote to change hands, such as Cannock Chase in Staffordshire, where the notional Conservative majority is 19,879 and which Labour needs a 21.5-percentage point swing to gain; and Chichester in West Sussex, where the Tory majority is 19,622 and the Lib Dems need a swing of 19.3 percentage points.
By the end of Wednesday, Sir Keir had visited 57 different seats during the campaign, including 43 being defended by the Conservatives; while Sir Ed clocked up 49 different constituencies, of which 41 are Tory defences.
The Lib Dem leader has been particularly methodical, visiting 31 of his party’s top 50 targets.
– Rishi Sunak
Here are the 47 Conservative-held seats that Rishi Sunak visited during the campaign, together with the party’s notional majority in 2019.
The seats are ranked in order of vulnerability, based on the size of the swing needed for the challenging party to gain, starting with the smallest:
– Wimbledon: 0.7 percentage point swing needed for Lib Dems to gain, Con majority 839– Bury North: 1.2pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 1,282– Stroud: 2.1pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 2,467– Vale of Glamorgan: 2.6pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 2,566– Clwyd North: 2.8pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 2,834– Milton Keynes Central: 4.7pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 4,952– St Ives: 4.9pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 5,227– Redcar: 5.5pp swing for Lab to gain; Con maj 4,878– Cities of London & Westminster: 5.8pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 5,976– Bishop Auckland: 8.2pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 8,113– Chelsea & Fulham: 8.2pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 8,993– Crawley: 8.4pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 8,360– Harrow East: 8.6pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 8,987– Didcot & Wantage: 9.3pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 10,023– Stoke-on-Trent North: 9.7pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 8,077– Finchley & Golders Green: 9.8pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj (over Lib Dems) 6,629– Macclesfield: 10.0pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 10,711– Erewash: 10.9pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 10,606– Stockton West: 11.3pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 11,749– Wokingham: 11.6pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 12,750– Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes: 11.8pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 9,759– Devon North: 13.4pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 14,813– Harpenden & Berkhamsted: 13.5pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 15,044– Banbury: 13.6pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 13,799– Swindon North: 14.0pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 13,250– Nuneaton: 14.6pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 13,144– Romsey & Southampton North: 14.9pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 16,251– Melksham & Devizes: 15.3pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 17,028– Horsham: 15.6pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 17,353– Witney: 16.1pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 15,674– Stoke-on-Trent South: 16.5pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 15,393– Chesham & Amersham: 17.0pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 18,216– Stratford-on-Avon: 17.8pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 19,020– Amber Valley: 18.6pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 16,891– Bedfordshire Mid: 20.0pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 20,509– Devon Central: 20.2pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 17,300– Hamble Valley: 20.6pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 23.488– Suffolk Coastal: 20.7pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 18,355– Torridge & Tavistock: 21.0pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 22,899– Northamptonshire South: 21.2pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 23,671– Cornwall South East: 21.4pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 20,225– Cannock Chase: 21.5pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 19,879– Thirsk & Malton: 22.4pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 23,337– Grantham & Bourne: 23.0pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 22,393– Hinckley & Bosworth: 23.3pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 22,851– Richmond & Northallerton: 23.5pp swing for Lab to gain, Con maj 24,331– Honiton & Sidmouth: 25.5pp swing for Lib Dems to gain, Con maj 26,229
In addition, Mr Sunak visited the following six seats that are being defended by Labour:
– Alyn & Deeside (Labour notional majority 411)– Derby South (6,019)– Blyth & Ashington (6,118)– Cambridge (8,099 over Lib Dems)– Leeds South (13,886)– Brent East (17,756)
He also visited Belfast East (where the DUP is defending a majority of 2,626 over the Alliance); Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (SNP majority of 2,788 over Lib Dems); and Edinburgh East & Musselburgh (SNP majority of 11,796 over Labour).
– Sir Keir Starmer
These are the 43 Conservative-held seats that Sir Keir Starmer visited during the election campaign, together with the notional Tory majority in 2019.
The seats are ranked in order of vulnerability, based on the size of the swing needed for Labour to gain, starting with the smallest:
– Bury North: 1.2 percentage point swing needed for Labour to gain, Con majority 1,282– Bolton North East: 1.3pp swing needed, Con maj 1,278– Vale of Glamorgan: 2.6pp swing needed, Con maj 2,566– Chipping Barnet: 3.6pp swing needed, Con maj 4,209– Southampton Itchen: 4.8pp swing needed, Con maj 4,498– Redcar: 5.5pp swing needed, Con maj 4,878– Swindon South: 5.7pp swing needed, Con maj 5,650– Cities of London & Westminster: 5.8pp swing needed, Con maj 5,976– Crewe & Nantwich: 5.8pp swing needed, Con maj 5,816– Worcester: 6.7pp swing needed, Con maj 6,758– Worthing East & Shoreham: 7.1pp swing needed, Con maj 7,474– Caerfyrddin: 7.1pp swing needed, Con maj (over Plaid Cymru) 4,529– Filton & Bradley Stoke: 7.7pp swing needed, Con maj 7,842– Uxbridge & South Ruislip: 7.9pp swing needed, Con maj 7,939– South Ribble: 8.7pp swing needed, Con maj 8,515– Stevenage: 9.0pp swing needed, Con maj 8,562– Finchley & Golders Green: 9.8pp swing needed, Con maj (over Lib Dems) 6,629– York Outer: 9.9pp swing needed, Con maj 10,782– Macclesfield: 10.0pp swing needed, Con maj 10,711– Monmouthshire: 10.3pp swing needed, Con maj 10,837– Hitchin: 10.5pp swing needed, Con maj 11,264– Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes: 11.8pp swing needed, Con maj 9,759– Basingstoke: 12.1pp swing needed, Con maj 12,301– Buckingham & Bletchley: 12.7pp swing needed, Con maj 13,345– Derbyshire North East: 13.1pp swing needed, Con maj 12,902– Bassetlaw: 13.2pp swing needed, Con maj 12,588– Stafford: 13.4pp swing needed, Con maj 13,720– Northampton South: 13.5pp swing needed, Con maj 13,324– Thurrock: 13.5pp swing needed, Con maj 11,962– Banbury: 13.6pp swing needed, Con maj 13,799– Halesowen: 13.9pp swing needed, Con maj 12,082– Nuneaton: 14.6pp swing needed, Con maj 13,144– Burton & Uttoxeter: 14.9pp swing needed, Con maj 14,496– Sherwood Forest: 15.7pp swing needed, Con maj 16,290– Hertford & Stortford: 16.0pp swing needed, Con maj 17,806– Gillingham & Rainham: 16.5pp swing needed, Con maj 15,119– Stoke-on-Trent South: 16.5pp swing needed, Con maj 15,393– Kettering: 16.7pp swing needed, Con maj 17,363– Reading West & Mid Berkshire: 17.0pp swing needed, Con maj 16,758– Aldershot: 17.4pp swing needed, Con maj 17,985– Leicestershire North West: 18.4pp swing needed, Con maj 18,548– Redditch: 19.4pp swing needed, Con maj 18,423– Cannock Chase: 21.5pp swing needed, Con maj 19,879
In addition, Sir Keir visited the following nine seats that are being defended by Labour:
– Bristol North West (Labour notional majority 7,235)– Portsmouth South (5,363)– Derby South (6,019)– Hammersmith & Chiswick (10,823)– Brent East (17,756)– Manchester Central (17,970)– Queen’s Park & Maida Vale (18,874)– Vauxhall & Camberwell Green (19,225)– Holborn & St Pancras (22,766)
He visited four SNP seats:
– Glasgow East (SNP notional majority over Labour 6,276)– Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West (SNP maj over Lab 8,933)– Bathgate & Linlithgow (SNP maj over Conservative 8,671)– East Kilbride & Strathaven (SNP maj over Lab 13,169)
He also visited Brighton Pavilion, where the Greens are defending a notional majority of 19,630.
– Sir Ed Davey
These are the 41 Conservative-held seats Sir Ed Davey visited during the election campaign, together with the notional Tory majority in 2019.
The seats are ranked in order of vulnerability, based on the size of the swing needed for the Lib Dems to gain, starting with the smallest:
– Carshalton & Wallington: 0.7pp percentage point swing needed for Lib Dems to gain, Con majority 629– Wimbledon: 0.8pp swing needed, Con maj 839– Cambridgeshire South: 1.3pp swing needed, Con maj 1,498– Cheltenham: 1.3pp swing needed, Con maj 1,421– Cheadle: 2.1pp swing needed, Con maj 2,336– Eastbourne: 2.2pp swing needed, Con maj 2,168– Guildford: 3.0pp swing needed, Con maj 3,117– Lewes: 3.8pp swing needed, Con maj 4,126– Hazel Grove: 4.2pp swing needed, Con maj 4,219– Westmorland & Lonsdale: 4.8pp swing needed, Con maj 5,140– St Ives: 4.9pp swing needed, Con maj 5,227– Winchester: 7.1pp swing needed, Con maj 9,050– Taunton & Wellington: 7.9pp swing needed, Con maj 8,536– Harrogate & Knaresborough: 8.0pp swing needed, Con maj 8,787– Woking: 8.6pp swing needed, Con maj 8,683– Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe: 8.7pp swing needed, Con maj 9,091– Eastleigh: 8.8pp swing needed, Con maj 8,641– Dorking & Horley: 9.6pp swing needed, Con maj 10,381– Henley & Thame: 11.1pp swing needed, Con maj 11,901– Newbury: 11.3pp swing needed, Con maj 11,460– Wokingham: 11.6pp swing needed, Con maj 12,750– St Neots & Mid Cambrideshire: 12.3pp swing needed, Con maj 12,250– Devon South: 12.7pp swing needed, Con maj 13,719– Frome & East Somerset: 13.0pp swing needed, Con maj 12,395– Chippenham: 13.1pp swing needed, Con maj 13,200– Tunbridge Wells: 13.4pp swing needed, Con maj 14,645– Glastonbury & Somerton: 13.4pp swing needed, Con maj 14,183– Harpenden & Berkhamsted: 13.5pp swing needed, Con maj 15,044– Yeovil: 13.6pp swing needed, Con maj 14,638– Bicester & Woodstock: 13.7pp swing needed, Con maj 14,205– Norfolk North: 14.1pp swing needed, Con maj 14,492– Chelmsford: 14.4pp swing needed, Con maj 15,416– Cornwall North: 14.6pp swing needed, Con maj 15,783– Romsey & Southampton North: 14.9pp swing needed, Con maj 16,251– Cotswolds South: 15.2pp swing needed, Con maj 16,092– Runnymede & Weybridge: 15.3pp swing needed, Con maj 16,072– Witney: 16.1pp swing Con maj needed, 15,674– Torbay: 17.5pp swing Con maj needed, 17,751– Stratford-on-Avon: 17.8pp swing needed, Con maj 19,020– Chichester: 19.3pp swing needed, Con maj 19,622– Shropshire North: 25.7pp swing needed, Con maj 20,543
In addition, Sir Ed visited two seats that are being defended by the Lib Dems: Edinburgh West, where the party’s notional majority is 2,888, and Bath (12,125).
He visited two Labour-held seats: Hackney South & Shoreditch (Labour majority over Con 30,141) where he launched the Lib Dem manifesto, and Sheffield Hallam (Labour maj over Lib Dems 1,108), the only Lab-Lib Dem ultra-marginal in the country.
He also visited four seats in Scotland, three of which are being targeted by the Lib Dems: Fife North East (SNP notional majority over Lib Dems 728); Dunbartonshire Mid (1,986) and Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (2,788).
The other seat in Scotland is Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy, which is being defended by the SNP and is more plausibly a Labour target at this election.