Millions remain trapped in child poverty with only 10% fall predicted by next election

The assessment takes into account the decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap

Over four million children will still be living in poverty by 2029, the government’s own analysis has forecast, marking a reduction of just 10 per cent from the current figure.

Projections by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) reveal that an estimated 4.2 million children will be in relative low income in the final year of parliament, down 500,000 from the current 4.7 million.

The assessment was carried out in light of Labour’s decision to end the two-child benefit limit, which forms part of the child poverty strategy released at the end of last year.

Chief analyst at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Peter Matejic commented: “Lifting the two-child limit in April is forecast to drive a fall in child poverty of half a million between 2025/26 and 2026/27. It is a crucial first step to reducing poverty, but should be seen as reversing a harm inflicted on millions of children since 2017.

“The government cannot simply rest on its laurels. We still need to hear what else ministers plan to do to tackle poverty over the remainder of the parliament because the government’s own projections show child poverty flatlining after 2026/27.”

Over four million children will still be living in poverty by 2029, the government’s own analysis has forecast (Getty/iStock)

A report from the anti-poverty think tank last week made a similar forecast for the number of children that would remain in poverty by 2029.

Researchers found that while the end of the two-child benefit cap will immediately reduce the number of children in poverty by 400,000, progress is set to broadly flatline over the following years.

Other measures included in the Labour child poverty strategy are expanding free schools meals and childcare support, as well as ending the unlawful use of bed and breakfast accommodation for families. The government estimates it will lift over half a million children out of poverty through the changes.

While campaigners welcomed the announcement, many criticised Labour’s lack of clear targets for reducing child poverty. Big Issue founder Lord John Bird warned at the time against “warm words”, arguing that the strategy was lacking in “ambitious targets”.

A spokesperson for the government said: “Every child deserves the best start in life and by scrapping the two-child limit as part of our Child Poverty Strategy we will lift 550,000 children out of poverty by the end of this parliament.

“We’re also working to drive down living costs and prevent families from falling into poverty in the first place, increasing the national living wage, cutting an average £150 from household energy bills and creating a genuine safety net for households through the £1bn multi-year Crisis and Resilience fund.”