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Coronavirus: Infections increasing across England, new official statistics show as Boris Johnson says rate could have doubled in last month

Modelling suggests 35,700 people could have been infected across England from 20 to 26 July

Vincent Wood
Friday 31 July 2020 12:39 BST
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Coronavirus in numbers

The number of coronavirus infections in the community in England has increased over recent weeks, new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has suggested, as the government begins to re-apply restrictions on some communities to stem the risk of a second spike.

The ONS estimates are based on 116,026 swab tests collected over six weeks, of which 59 returned positive results – suggesting a small uptick in cases according to the agency’s modelling.

However, in a press conference following the release of the figures, Boris Johnson suggested the daily number of new infections in the community may have more than doubled over the last month – with the most recent analysis suggesting the country is seeing 4,900 new infections every day, compared with around 2,000 per day at the end of June.

The ONS assessment has suggested about 35,700 people in the community population in England could have had Covid-19 from 20 to 26 July 2020 – a figure equivalent to around 1 in 1,500 individuals. The increase is the first likely rise in cases since May.

The agency’s infection survey data for 31 July said: “Modelling of the rate of new infections over time suggests that there is now some evidence that the incidence of new infections has increased in recent weeks.”

It added: “While the percentage of individuals testing positive for Covid-19 has decreased since the start of the study (26 April 2020), there is now evidence to suggest that it has been rising slightly in recent weeks.

“Further analysis indicates that we can be confident that there was a real, small increase in the most recent estimated daily infection rate when compared with the lowest daily rate from the last six weeks, which was 0.05 per cent.”

The announcement came as the government called on households in areas of the north of England to no longer mix with others in private residences and hospitality businesses.

Meanwhile, planned easing of restrictions around wedding receptions and indoor entertainment businesses have been put on hold, and face masks will be mandatory in cinemas, museums and places of worship from next weekend.

Commenting on the figures at a Downing Street press conference, the prime minister said: “Around one in 1,500 now have the virus compared to one in 1,800 on the 15th of July and one in 2,000 on the 2nd of July. The ONS also estimates that there are now 4,900 new infections every day, up from around 3,000 per day on the 14th of July and 2,000 per day at the end of June.”

“We just can’t afford to ignore this evidence,” he added, saying it was “vital to stress, of course, that we are in a far better position to keep the virus under control now than we were at the start of the pandemic”.

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