Britain set to achieve herd immunity on Monday, UCL modelling shows

Nearly three-quarters will have protection on 12 April, UCL modelling shows

Outdoor hospitality is set to return in England on 12 April (REUTERS)

The UK could reach coronavirus herd immunity by Monday, modelling by University College London (UCL) has forecasted in contrast with government scientific advisers’ warning of a surge in hospitalisations over the summer.

The UCL research, seen by The Telegraph, estimates that almost three-quarters of people (73.4 per cent) will have immunity from the virus through vaccination or previous infection on 12 April.

UCL’s dynamic modelling stands in contrast with the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies’ (Sage) more pessimistic view of the UK’s exit from lockdown, which forecasted earlier this week that a full release from restrictions in June could trigger another wave of hospitalisations comparable to January’s.

A document published by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M-O) on Monday said it was “highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths after the later steps of the roadmap”.

It comes after figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed last week that around 54 per cent had antibodies by 14 March, either due to vaccination or infection.

Read more:

• Coronavirus news live: Ministers urge confidence in AstraZeneca jab
• ‘Link’ between AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots, EMA official says
• AstraZeneca vaccine blood clots: What are the symptoms to look out for?
• Which countries will be on the ‘green list’?

Since the ONS antibody figures were released, 7.1 million more people have received a first vaccine dose, while nearly 100,000 people have tested positive for Covid-19.

Prof Karl Friston, of UCL, told The Telegraph: “The herd immunity estimates surprised me. However, they are unremarkable when one considers that over 50 per cent of adults have been vaccinated, around 42 per cent of people have now been exposed to the virus and about 10 per cent have pre-existing immunity.

“When factoring in the estimated efficacy of vaccination in terms of sterilising immunity, this – according to the model – means about 70 per cent of the population are immune.”

Prof Friston said that this level is “nearly at the herd immunity threshold” based on contact rates at the beginning of the pandemic and the estimated risk of transmission.

Boris Johnson confirmed on Monday that the UK’s roadmap remained on track as coronavirus data showed that the government’s “four tests” for easing restrictions had been met.

The factors by which the government judges the unlocking of the economy are: the continued success of the UK’s vaccine rollout; evidence on vaccine efficacy; infection rates; assessments on the risk posed by new variants.

Significant parts of the hospitality and leisure sector will be allowed to reopen from 12 April as part of the latest easing of restrictions.

However, outdoor gatherings will continue to be limited to six people or two households and people are still banned from socialising indoors with people outside their household or support bubble.