Survey ‘suggests political system poised for potential transformation’
The latest chapter of the British Social Attitudes survey found a growing appetite for electoral reform.
Erosion of the traditional two-party dominance of British politics and a continuing decline in voter trust in the system suggests the political landscape is “poised for potential transformation”, according to researchers.
The findings of a new survey also show there is a clear appetite for electoral reform, with a record number backing changes to allow smaller political parties “to get a fairer share of MPs”, the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) said.
NatCen, which published the latest chapter of the British Social Attitudes (BSA) report on Wednesday, said that before the recent rise in the popularity of Reform UK, significant questions about the future of two-party politics were raised by the outcome of the 2024 general election.
The election did not improve low levels of trust and confidence in how the country is governed, researchers found, with a record low of 19% of the public saying the system needs little or no improvement before the election repeated in the latest survey.
In addition, just 12% of those surveyed said they trust governments to put the country’s interest before their party’s interests “just about always” or “most of the time”.
This is a smaller percentage than the previous record lowest level of 14% registered in 2023, while NatCen said high levels of dissatisfaction with the NHS, the economy and Brexit continue to undermine public trust and confidence.
Meanwhile, amid diminishing class-based support for the two main parties, age and education are now viewed as more important factors.
Labour failed to reconnect with its traditional working class base during the election campaign, continuing a trend that emerged in 2019, the survey suggests.
Just 30% of those in what NatCen describes as “semi-routine and routine occupations” voted Labour, compared with 42% of people in professional and managerial jobs.
The survey showed age and education are now the “principal dividing line in British politics”, demonstrated by only 6% of 18 to 24-year-olds of those surveyed voting Conservative, compared with 36% of voters aged 65 or over.
Only 5% of graduates voted for Reform UK, compared with 25% of those with less than one A-level.
While a record 60% of those surveyed said the electoral system should be changed to allow smaller political parties to get their “fair share” of MPs, just 36% said the status quo should be maintained “to produce effective government”.
For the first time a majority of supporters of all political parties said they backed electoral reform, with as much as 90% of Green supporters and 78% of Reform voters confirming this position.
In another first, more than half of respondents said they would prefer a coalition government, compared with 41% who opted for a single party in power.
Commenting on the findings, Alex Scholes, research director at NatCen, said: “The 2024 election highlighted significant challenges to Britain’s traditional two-party system and the result has yet to restore public trust and confidence.
“With voter trust at an all-time low and a growing support for electoral reform, the political landscape is poised for potential transformation.
“Whether this will lead to substantive changes in how the country is governed remains to be seen.”
The survey also found a record 26% of participants said they are struggling to live on their current income, up from 16% before the pandemic.
The proportion who said they are living comfortably has also fallen over the same period from 50% to a record low of 35%.
With Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer facing a backlash from some Labour MPs over proposals to reform the welfare system which are expected to save up to £5 billion a year, support for more spending on disability benefits fell to a record low of 45%, down 22 points since 2017.
Just over a quarter of respondents (29%) said it is too easy for people to claim and receive disability benefits, while the same proportion said it is too difficult.
However, just 11% said spending on disability benefits should be cut.
The survey also found 69% believe the economy is worse off as a result of leaving the European Union.
Within the backdrop of Labour pledging a significant uplift in the delivery of new homes as a key element of its bid to boost economic growth, the proportion of people who support more homes in their local area has fallen from 57% in 2018 to 41% now.
Meanwhile, a third are opposed, up from 23% in 2018.
Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow at NatCen, said voters are aware of the challenges but not “necessarily ready to back the various remedies that Labour have been offering to overcome the country’s difficulties”.
He added: “They are not necessarily prepared to embrace a dash for more infrastructure building, including perhaps not least anything that appears in their own backyard.
“Tightening up on disability benefits is potentially controversial too, as the Government has already discovered.
“The political difficulty with these policies is there are potentially identifiable winners and losers, and it is often the losers who shout the loudest.
“Pursuing economic growth rather than tax rises as the route out of fiscal constraint will not necessarily be the easier path for Labour to tread.”
The British Social Attitudes survey has been conducted annually since 1983.
The latest survey consisted of 4,120 interviews with a “representative, random sample” of adults in the UK and was conducted between September 16 and October 27 2024.