UK population projected to grow at slower rate because of drop in migration
The ONS said the new figures are ‘a better reflection of short-term population change’.
The UK population is projected to grow at a slower rate than previously stated, because of a sharp drop in the estimated level of migration.
Initial figures published in January by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested the population was projected to increase by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032.
This has been revised to the new figure of 5.9%, after the ONS said its short-term projections were “running too high”.
Net migration to the UK – the difference between the number of people moving long term to the country and the number leaving – is estimated to have halved from 860,000 in 2023 to 431,000 in 2024, the ONS said in May.
But this data was not available when the ONS made its first population projections at the start of this year.
As migration is the main driver of population growth, the ONS has now adjusted its principal projection.
The population of England is also projected to grow at a slower rate than previously stated, rising by 6.4% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with the previous projection of 7.8%.
The ONS said the new figures are “a better reflection of short-term population change”.
Projections are not forecasts or predictions and do not take into account what may or may not happen in the future.
They are instead based on current and past trends, and as those trends change, the projections are adjusted accordingly.
James Robards, ONS head of population and household projections, said the latest changes reflect “the challenge in projecting the path from unprecedented levels of international migration seen over recent years to a lower long-term average figure and the uncertainty over the speed of decrease.
“Although in the long term we project annual UK net migration will settle around the 340,000 mark, in the short term our national projections were running too high.”
The new figures also include population projections for local areas in England.
They show the population is projected to rise between mid-2022 and mid-2032 in 302 of 309 local authorities.
The fastest growing areas include Tower Hamlets in London (up 20.4%), South Derbyshire (up 19.2%), Stratford-upon-Avon in Warwickshire (up 17.4%) and North West Leicestershire (up 15.8%).
Some 47 local authorities are projected to see a population increase of at least 10%.
The City of London is projected to grow by 48.6%, but the size of change reflects the very low population in this area, at just 11,457 in mid-2022 and 17,023 in mid-2032.
Seven areas are projected to see a fall in population over the period, including Gosport in Hampshire (down 2.1%), Copeland in Cumbria (down 1.9%) and Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria (down 1.7%).
The ONS local area projections are based on local authority boundaries in 2021.
Copeland is now part of the larger local authority of Cumberland, while Barrow-in-Furness is part of Westmorland & Furness.
“The drivers behind the projected population increase vary significantly by area,” James Robards added.
“In many local authorities, growth is mainly driven by internal migration.
“Internal migration of young people would furthermore contribute to the number of projected births.
“However, in many urban areas growth is driven by net international migration.”
The population of every region in England is projected have to have grown by mid-2032.
South-west England is projected to be the fastest-growing region, with its population up 7.5%, while north-east England has the slowest growth at 4.8%.
Across England as a whole, the proportion of the population who are of state pension age is projected to rise from 17.6% to 18.7% between mid-2022 and mid-2032.
There are only 11 local authorities projected to have a declining proportion of residents of state pension age, most of which are have a large population of students, young families or both: Bristol, Coventry, City of London, Dartford, Havering, Isles of Scilly, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Salford, Sheffield, Thurrock and Walsall.
North Norfolk is the local area projected to have the largest proportion of its population of state pension age by mid-2032 (34.3%), followed by Rother in East Sussex (32.7%), New Forest in Hampshire (31.9%) and Dorset (31.7%).
Richmondshire in North Yorkshire has the largest increase in the proportion of its population of stage pension age, up more than four percentage points from 22.6% in mid-2022 to 26.7% in mid-2032.
The projections for local areas include the population increase because of net international migration.
Birmingham is projected to have an additional 136,486 people because of net migration by mid-2032, more than any other local area in England.
The next largest totals are for Manchester (120,911 people), Newham in London (118,380), Coventry (104,346), Tower Hamlets in London (87,576) and Leicester (87,091).
The ONS said that population change at a local level can be influenced by factors not included in its projections, such as economic development and housing policies.
Local population projections “are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict potential changes in international migration,” it added.
“There is uncertainty over future directions and levels of international migration.”