UK coronavirus infection rate slowing

Current growth rate is minus 4 per cent to minus 2 per cent and estimate for R value remains at 0.7 to 0.9, new figures show

The spread of Covid-19 across the UK is slowing, according to new government figures.

The current growth rate is minus 4 per cent to minus 2 per cent and the estimate for the reproduction rate – or R number – remains at 0.7 to 0.9.

This comes as officials lowered the UK’s coronavirus alert level from 4 to 3, signalling that transmission of the disease is no longer regarded as “high”.

Health secretary Matt Hancock hailed the move as “a big moment for the country” and praised the contribution of the public in getting the virus under control by complying with lockdown rules.

As for the growth rate, this reflects how quickly the number of coronavirus infections is changing day by day, and, as the number of infections decreases, is another way of keeping track of the virus.

If the growth rate is greater than zero, and therefore positive, then the disease will grow, and if the growth rate is less than zero, then the disease will shrink.

It is an approximation of the change in the number of infections each day, and the size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change.

For example, a growth rate of plus 5 per cent is faster than a growth rate of plus 1 per cent, while a disease with a growth rate of minus 4 per cent will be shrinking faster than a disease with growth rate of minus 1 per cent.

Until the figures were published for the first time on Friday, the government had only been giving details of the R value of the disease – the average number of people an infected person is likely to pass it on to.

R estimates do not indicate how quickly an epidemic is changing, and different diseases with the same R can result in epidemics that grow at very different speeds.

Growth rates provide can provide some indication of the size and speed of change, whereas the R value only gives data on the direction of change.

Neither measure – R or growth rate – is better than the other but each provides information that is useful in monitoring the spread of a disease.

Experts say each should be considered alongside other measures of the spread of disease.

For the NHS England region, the R value is 0.7 to 0.9, and the growth rate is minus 4 per cent to minus 1 per cent.

The R values and growth rate for the following regions are:

• East of England: 0.7-0.9, minus 6% to minus 1%
• London: 0.7-1.0, minus 5% to plus 1%
• Midlands: 0.8-1.0, minus 4% to 0%
• North East and Yorkshire: 0.7-0.9, minus 5% to minus 1%
• North West: 0.7-1.0, minus 4% to 0%
• South East: 0.7-0.9, minus 5% to minus 1%
• South West: 0.6-0.9, minus 6% to 0%

Additional reporting by PA