UK coronavirus ‘R’ rate creeps back towards 1

Experts ‘not confident’ R below 1 in all English regions, particularly in London and parts of the southeast

In London and the southeast the reproduction rate of the virus could be above 1 (Getty Images)

The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK has risen a fraction and is now between 0.9 and 1, government scientists say.

Last week, the R number was between 0.8 and 1.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19-positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.

An R number between 0.9 and 1 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 9 and 10 other people.

The R value in England alone is still between 0.8 and 1, but the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said it was not confident that R was below 1 in all English regions, particularly in London and parts of the southeast.

These two areas are suffering the highest rate of spread at the moment.

On Thursday, health secretary Matt Hancock announced mass coronavirus testing for all secondary school pupils in parts of London, Essex and Kent amid growing rates of infection. 

The southeast is one of two English regions where the number of Covid patients in hospital is heading towards levels recorded at the peak of the first wave of the virus, figures show.

In southeast England, 1,547 hospital patients with confirmed Covid-19 were reported on 9 December. This is the highest number for the region since the end of April.

At the current rate of increase, levels could be above this within a fortnight.

In eastern England, 1,063 patients were reported on 9 December - again, the highest since the end of April.

The first-wave peak in eastern England was 1,484 patients on April 12. On the current trend, this could be surpassed by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, the growth rate of Covid-19, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day and is different from the R rate, is between minus 2 per cent and zero for the UK as a whole.

It means the number of new infections is shrinking by between zero and 2 per cent every day.

Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range and the true values are likely to lie within this range, according to the experts.