‘Tories at risk of being swept away as coastal seats swing behind Labour’

Coastal seats have consistently backed winning causes including Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, Brexit and Boris Johnson.

Voters in coastal communities have consistently backed election winners, and now appear to have swung behind the Labour Party, according to a think tank (Owen Humphreys/PA) (PA Archive)

Voters in “bellwether” coastal seats have swung back behind the Labour Party after supporting Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019, a think tank has claimed.

People living within five miles of the sea said they would vote for Labour over the Tories by a margin of 44% to 24%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11%, according to a poll carried out by think tank Labour Together.

Coastal communities have disproportionately backed winning causes over the last 40 years, with three-quarters supporting Margaret Thatcher in 1987 before Tony Blair doubled Labour’s number of seaside seats in 1997.

Most coastal seats supported Brexit and around 70% voted Conservative in 2019.

That position now appears to have reversed again, with Labour enjoying a net favourability rating of 7% among coastal voters, while the Tories have slumped to minus 32%.

Where the coast goes, the country follows ... The tide is turning, and the Tories are at risk of being swept away

Josh Williams, Labour Together

The results of the survey represent a boost for Labour in an area recently described by centre-right think tank Onward as “the forgotten battleground that could decide the next election”.

The think tank warned in September that coastal communities are “in crisis” due to deindustralisation and a decline in tourism, leaving them among the poorest areas in the country.

Josh Williams, director of strategy at Labour Together, said: “Where the coast goes, the country follows.

“Take a look at the polls now and the story is clear: the tide is turning, and the Tories are at risk of being swept away.”

The same survey found that Labour enjoys a four-point lead over the Conservatives in rural constituencies, and an overall lead of 21 points.

– The Labour Together poll surveyed 4,981 British adults between October 27 and November 1.