Sturgeon’s reference to higher Covid rates in England was accurate – watchdog

The UK Statistics Authority has said the First Minister was right when she said England’s infection rate was more than 20% higher than Scotland’s.

Nicola Sturgeon was correct to say England’s infection rate was a fifth higher than Scotland’s, the UK Statistics Authority has said (Jane Barlow/PA) (PA Wire)

Nicola Sturgeon was correct when she said England’s coronavirus infection rate was more than 20% higher than in Scotland the statistics watchdog has confirmed.

The First Minister was accused of having “seriously twisted” the Covid figures by the Scottish Liberal Democrats who reported her to the UK Statistics Authority.

Office of National Statistics figures cited by Ms Sturgeon showed 5.47% of people in England are infected compared to 4.49% in Scotland – a difference of 0.98 percentage points or 21.8%.

The watchdog’s chairman, Sir David Norgrove has now responded to confirm that the figures stated by Ms Sturgeon were accurate and “the data does suggest that the rate of infection is lower in Scotland than in England”.

But Sir David added: “The distinction between percentages (parts per hundred) and percentage points (the simple difference between two percentages) can be made easier to understand by quoting the two numbers being compared.

“For clarity, when publishing results from CIS, the Office for National Statistics gives the absolute number of people with Covid-19; the percentage of the population with Covid-19; and the number of people with Covid-19 as a ratio to the whole population. For example, one in 20 people.”

Commenting on the decision during a statement at Holyrood on Tuesday, Ms Sturgeon said: “To me, what matters is that Scotland is doing better now than we were doing before Christmas and better now than we might have been doing had we not taken action to stem transmission.

“That is what is important.

“How we are faring relative to England or anywhere else is not, in my view, the key comparison.

Willie Rennie said public confidence in data used to back-up restrictions ‘must not be put at risk’ (Fraser Bremner/Scottish Daily Mail/PA) (PA Archive)

“But, given that others have sought to draw that comparison – inaccurately – in an attempt to undermine confidence in the Scottish Government’s decisions, I hope all members will now accept the conclusion of the chair of the UK statistics authority that the data I cited was, indeed, accurate.”

In his original letter to the UK Statistics Authority, Lib Dem MSP Willie Rennie wrote: “The public have a right to always expect the Scottish Government’s interpretation of data to be robust.

“This is even more important when that data is being used to justify and substantiate restrictions on their liberty and freedoms under the use of emergency powers.

“Parliament has granted powers to ministers that would not be countenanced in any other circumstances so scrutiny of how they are used is essential.

“Public confidence in these statistics must not be put at risk. There must be no bias, spin or manipulation. However, I am concerned that these statistics may have been seriously twisted.”

Following Sir David’s response, SNP MSP Siobhian said: “Willie Rennie has completely embarrassed himself and should apologise to the people of Scotland for providing an unnecessary distraction during a time when people were making sacrifices to curb the spread of the Omicron variant.”

But a defiant Mr Rennie said: “Nicola Sturgeon responds to the complaint about her selective use of statistics by selectively quoting the letter from the statistics authority.

“The authority advised both percent and percentage points should be quoted but 1% doesn’t sound as impressive as 20% so she chose not to.”