Blair's week of reckoning

He is mired in leadership speculation (again), is braced for the Butler report on Iraq, and fears by-election wipe-out. Is it make-or-break time for Tony Blair?

Today: THE LEADERSHIP ISSUE

Today: THE LEADERSHIP ISSUE

The Blair and Brown camps are at loggerheads over mysterious reports that the Prime Minister considered stepping down last month. The Prime Minister's camp believes the Chancellor is too impatient to grasp the reins of power; the Chancellor's people suspect some murky tricks at No 10 to get out an "I'm-still-in-charge" snub to Mr Brown. So, did Mr Blair really wobble? Were the four, five, or six cabinet ministers who went to him simply pledging support in difficult times, or pleading with him to stay on? Or were Mr Brown's supporters trying it on? One thing seems certain: at the beginning of such a make-or-break week for Mr Blair, relations between the two key players are at an all-time low.

BROWN'S SPENDING REVIEW

Mr Brown grabs centre stage today with his spending review, an opportunity - no doubt, to be grabbed with aplomb - to demonstrate his credentials as the prime-minister-in-waiting. Big winners are likely to be the police and security services. But there will be losers, with £20bn of cuts among civil service staff. As far as his No 10 ambitions go, will Mr Brown eventually prove to be a winner or a loser?

Tuesday: MEETING AN OLD FRIEND

A rare respite as Mr Blair meets one of his few unquestioning allies, the Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, for an Anglo-Italian summit in London. The pair are likely to discuss the EU and Iraq in a wide-ranging meeting.

Wednesday: SEXED UP, OR NOT?

Lord Butler of Brockwell, hitherto seen as an establishment figure, delivers his verdict on the British intelligence concerning Iraqi WMD. His terms of reference were limited, excluding how the Government handled the information. He is likely to go beyond his remit. It is suggested that John Scarlett, the next head of MI6, will be criticised, as well as Lord Goldsmith, the Attorney General. A word of caution: in the run-up to the release of the Hutton report, all sorts of leaks were suggesting a hard-hitting report. It proved to be anything but.

Thursday: BY-ELECTION BLUES?

Mr Blair, battered in local and European elections last month, faces losing two safe seats in one day: Leicester South, where the majority is 13,243, and Birmingham Hodge Hill, where Labour won by 11,618. Many Muslim voters are likely to use their votes to protest against the war in Iraq.

Friday: TIME OUT

Mr Blair is expected to keep a low profile and will probably retire to Chequers, his country residence, to mull over the week's events with his advisers and family.

Saturday: ONE YEAR ON

The first anniversary of David Kelly's disappearance. There had been deep misgivings about the war in Iraq long before the MoD scientist's suicide, but the Government's handling of its campaign against the BBC reporter Andrew Gilligan and the Today programme was seen in a much more sinister light after his death. Dr Kelly was the source for Mr Gilligan's reports that the Government sexed-up the case for war. Mr Blair struggled in the immediate aftermath - while visiting Japan he was asked at a press conference if he had blood on his hands.