Blair under pressure as Labour MPs consider second rebellion

Tony Blair was under more pressure than ever yesterday to deliver a second United Nations resolution as Labour MPs reacted angrily to President George Bush's uncompromising stance on war on Iraq.

The threat of cabinet resignations and a long-lasting split within his own party intensified as President Bush's words on Thursday night sunk in.

Downing Street sources were adamant that a second resolution would win sufficient support from the smaller nations on the Security Council and that France and Russia would abstain.

But with Mr Blair's own credibility and authority with British voters so closely dependent on a new UN mandate, the stakes for his premiership could not be higher.

The timing of President Bush's White House press conference (1am GMT) meant most MPs only learnt of its contents at breakfast time. The briefing, from the East Wing, was only the second such conference in American TV "prime time" that the President had given since his election. As if to underline the point, the first was on 11 October 2001, a month after the terrorist attacks on the US.

His words would have confirmed the fears of many of Mr Blair's cabinet colleagues as well as backbenchers. A vote on the UK-US-Spanish resolution would be taken soon "no matter what the whip count", he said. "It's time for people to show their cards and let the world know where they stand on Iraq." Mr Bush gave his clearest message yet that if the Security Council rejected the resolution, the US and its allies would go it alone. "If we need to act, we will act, and we really don't need the United Nations' approval to do so," he said.

Senior government sources were surprisingly sanguine about the speech, pointing out that a vote would not be attempted unless the two countries were confident they could get nine votes. "We would not have tabled a second resolution if we didn't think we could win it," one source said.

The Prime Minister and his aides know, from opinion polls, that they can only win public support for military action with a second resolution. A minority for war turns into a healthy majority if such backing is won.

Yet those same polls show that much of the antipathy in Britain stems from the gung-ho, cowboy image of Mr Bush, and Downing Street knows it has a huge task challenging such perceptions.

But just as important as public opinion is the rebellion by 121 Labour MPs in the Commons last week. Some MPs mutter about a leadership challenge and, although this would fail, a "bad war" would help Gordon Brown's chances of succession.

A Commons vote on the second resolution will almost certainly now take place on Wednesday or Thursday. Hilary Armstrong, the chief whip, has indicated up to 160 Labour MPs could rebel if the UN vote on Tuesday goes against Mr Blair.

Graham Allen, MP for Nottingham North, summed up the feelings of his colleagues yesterday: "Over this weekend, a lot of MPs, cabinet ministers and junior ministers will be wrestling with their conscience as to which way they go."