Boris Johnson could lose seat and majority at next election, poll suggests

SNP could play ‘kingmaker’ role in forming next government, survey suggests

Andrew Macaskill
Sunday 03 January 2021 00:29
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Video: Boris Johnson’s New Year message to the UK

Boris Johnson is on course to lose his seat and neither of the two main political parties is likely to win an outright majority at the next general election, according to a new poll.

It is the first detailed survey of the public's perception of the prime minister’s handling of the Brexit talks and the Covid-19 pandemic after he reversed plans to allow families to meet up at Christmas in parts of southern England to combat the spread of the virus.

More than 22,000 people were surveyed in a closely watched constituency-by-constituency poll over a four-week period in December, which was conducted by the research data company Focaldata and published by The Sunday Times.

The so-called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll predicted that at the next general election, not due until 2024, the ruling Conservatives would lose 81 seats, wiping out the 80-seat majority. This would leave the Conservatives with 284 seats, while the opposition Labour Party would win 282 seats, the poll showed.

The Scottish National Party, which wants to break away from the rest of the United Kingdom, is predicted to win 57 of the 59 seats in Scotland, meaning the party could potentially play a kingmaker role in forming the next government.

Mr Johnson is at risk of losing his own seat of Uxbridge in west London, the poll found.

He won a resounding election victory last year that allowed him to take Britain out of the European Union's orbit on New Year's Eve after almost half a century of close ties.

But Mr Johnson's premiership may increasingly be defined by the government's response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has already killed more than 74,000 people and crushed the economy.

Reuters

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