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Predicted 0.08% boost from UK-Asia trade deal could be overestimate

Trade department used different approach to estimating economic boost which ‘generates larger estimated GDP impacts’

Jon Stone
Policy Correspondent
Monday 10 April 2023 07:27 BST
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Trade secretary Kemi Badenoch
Trade secretary Kemi Badenoch (PA)

The government’s prediction that its Brexit trade deal with Asia-Pacific countries will grow the economy by 0.08 per cent may be an overestimate, it has emerged.

Officials working on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) deal changed their usual approach to calculating the GDP figure and instead used a new model that “generates larger estimated GDP impacts”, according to the government’s own documentation.

Trade secretary Kemi Badenoch last week responded to mockery of the low figure, which amounts to a £1.8bn economic boost, by saying her department's estimate was probably too low and ignored some benefits.

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