Brexit: Top economist reveals what he thinks will happen next after the EU referendum vote
John Van Reenen of the London School of Econimics forecast costs of Brexit before vote was held
Support truly
independent journalism
Our mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.
Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.
Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.
Louise Thomas
Editor
One of the UK's top economists has issued a stark warning about the possible economic and social implications of Brexit for Europe.
Work from before the referendum by Professor John Van Reenen, professor of economics at LSE and director of the university's Centre for Economic Performance, laid out the likely long-term economic costs of Britain leaving the European Union.
Van Reenen's research, co-authored with three colleagues from the LSE, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson, claims even if Britain manages to secure a deal where it keeps access to the single market, income per person will still fall by 1.3 per cent relative to otherwise.
If the UK is unwilling to accept the free movement of labour, it is likely trade will fall by more, leading to a 2.6 per cent decrease in income per person.
This translates to a fall of between £850 and £1,700 per UK household.
In a new piece following the referendum result, Mr Van Reenen blamed the stigmatisation of foreigners, the eurosceptic and anti-immigration stance of large sections of the British press and also “the worst [politicians] in living memory” for the result.
Brexit racism and the fightback
Show all 9He argued the vote was “won on a drumbeat of anti-foreigner sentiment” and is “the same tune that was played in the 1930s” and has "drowned a once great nation.”
And in a warning for the future, Mr Van Reenen predicted other European countries will follow Britain’s example and be “swept along in this poisonous flood”.
The only question, according to Mr Van Reenen, is which other states will also be hit by the "tsunami of bile" and take an anti-immigration, anti-Europe stance in the coming years.
Subscribe to Independent Premium to bookmark this article
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments