Brexit: Majority of voters in northeast support fresh referendum in no-deal scenario, new poll reveals

More than two-thirds of Labour supporting voters in the region also back a new public vote if Theresa May fails to secure a deal

Political Correspondent

Thursday 23 August 2018 10:17 BST

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What does a no-deal Brexit mean?

A majority of people in a region that voted heavily to leave the European Union now supports a fresh referendum if Theresa May fails to achieve a deal with Brussels, according to a new poll.

A survey of almost 1,000 voters in the northeast by YouGov, comes as Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, prepares to release the first tranche of technical notes on Thursday, setting out the consequences of a no-deal outcome for various sectors of the economy.

Commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign – an organisation set up to advocate a new EU referendum – the poll suggests 54 per cent of people in the region – which voted by a 16-point margin to leave the EU in 2016 – would back a fresh vote in a no-deal scenario.

A further 22 per cent of respondents said they would prefer MPs to vote in parliament when the prime minister returns from negotiations in Brussels, while 24 per cent said they did not know.

The results also showed 40 per cent of respondents would support a new referendum even if Ms May manages to secure a deal, with 35 per cent opposed and 25 per cent unsure.

The findings came after The Independent’s campaign for a Final Say referendum on any Brexit deal gathered pace, with more than 700,000 people having signed the petition.

Peter Kellner, the former president of the YouGov polling company, said the political significance of support for a fresh vote in the region among Labour voters is “hard to overstate”.

The poll shows that of Labour voters in the northeast, 67 per cent said they would support a new vote if there is no deal, and 57 per cent would back the idea even if Ms May returns this year with an agreement.

Brexit casualties

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Brexit casualties

Andrea Jenkyns - Resigned from Parliamentary Private Secretary at the ministry for housing, communities and local government role

May 2018 - The Morley and Outwood MP said: “We want to see a new relationship with Europe, with a new model not enjoyed by other countries – nothing that leaves us half-in, half-out. “And in order to achieve this, we need to leave the customs union.” Ms Jenkyn’s also said she wished to dedicate more of her time to Parliament’s influential Exiting the European Union select committee, after a series of “unbalanced” reports produced by MPs

PA

Brexit casualties

David Davis - Resigned from Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union role

July 2018 - quit following a major row with May over her plans for post-Brexit relations with the EU. Davis resignation letter said: “As you know there have been a significant number of occasions in the last year or so on which I have disagreed with the Number 10 policy line, ranging from accepting the [European] Commission’s sequencing of negotiations, through to the language on Northern Ireland in the December Joint Report. “At each stage I have accepted collective responsibility because it is part of my task to find workable compromises, and because I considered it was still possible to deliver on the mandate of the referendum, and on our manifesto commitment to leave the Customs Union and the Single Market. “I am afraid that I think the current trend of policy and tactics is making that look less and less likely.” He went on to argue that the “general direction” of Ms May’s policies would leave the UK “in at best a weak negotiating position, and possibly an inescapable one”.

AFP/Getty

Brexit casualties

Steve Baker - Resigned from Minister at the Department for Exiting the European Union role

July 2018 - Mr Baker, a key Tory figure in the Leave campaign, was David Davis’s main lieutenant at Dexeu, and was hailed as ”courageous and principled” by other Brexiteer Tories as he also left.

Reuters

Brexit casualties

Boris Johnson - Resigned from Foreign Secretary role

July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. In his resignation letter to the prime minister, Mr Johnson said: "On Friday, I acknowledged that my side of the argument were too few to prevail and congratulated you on at least reaching a Cabinet decision on the way forward. "As I said then, the government now has a song to sing. "The trouble is that I have practised the words over the weekend and find that they stick in the throat."

Reuters

Brexit casualties

Conor Burns - Resigned from Parliamentary Private Secretary to Foreign Secretary role

July 2018 - A Brexit supporter who worked alongside Boris Johnson stated in his resignation letter: “I've decided it's time to have greater freedom. I want to see the referendum result respected. And there are other areas of policy I want to speak more openly on.”

Rex

Brexit casualties

Chris Green - Resigned from Department for Transport role

July 2018 - The Bolton West MP said: "Parliament overwhelmingly decided to give the decision of whether to leave or remain in the European Union to the British people and they made an unambiguous decision that we ought to leave. "I have always understood the idea in 'Brexit means Brexit' is that the final deal should be clear to me and my constituents - that we have, in no uncertain terms, left the European Union. Twitter Ads info and privacy "The direction the negotiations had been taking have suggested that we would not really leave the EU and the conclusion and statements following the Chequers summit confirmed my fears. "I recognise that delivering Brexit is challenging, however I had hoped at tonight's meeting that there would be some certainty that my fears were unfounded but, instead, they have been confirmed. "I have been grateful for the opportunity to serve as Parliamentary Private Secretary and it is with regret that I offer my resignation with immediate effect."

PA

Brexit casualties

Maria Caulfield - Resigned from Conservative Party vice-chair for women role

July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. Lewes MP warned that the direction of travel did “not fully embrace the opportunities that Brexit can provide”. Ms Caulfield said in her letter to the PM: “The policy may assuage vested interests, but the voters will find out and their representatives will be found out. This policy will be bad for our country and bad for the party. “The direct consequences of that will be prime minister Corbyn.”

PA

Brexit casualties

Ben Bradley - Resigned from Conservative Party vice-chair for young people role

July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. The Mansfield MP said: “I admit that I voted to Remain in that ballot. What has swayed me over the last two years to fully back the Brexit vision is the immense opportunities that are available from global trade, and for the ability for Britain to be an outward looking nation in control of our own destiny once again. “I fear that this agreement at Chequers damages those opportunities; that being tied to EU regulations, and the EU tying our hands when seeking to make new trade agreements, will be the worst of all worlds if we do not deliver Brexit in spirit as well as in name, then we are handing Jeremy Corbyn the keys to No10.”

PA

Brexit casualties

Robert Courts - Resigned from Parliamentary Private Secretary role

July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. MP Mr Courts said: “I have taken a very difficult decision to resign my position as [parliamentary private secretary] to express discontent with the Chequers [plans] in votes tomorrow. “I had to think who I wanted to see in the mirror for the rest of my life. I cannot tell the people of Woxon that I support the proposals in their current form.”

Getty

Brexit casualties

Scott Mann - Resigned from Parliamentary Private Secretary role

July 2018 - resigned over May's Chequers plan. "I fear elements of the Brexit white paper will inevitably put me in direct conflict with the views expressed by a large section of my constituents. I am not prepared to compromise their wishes to deliver a watered-down Brexit. "The residents of North Cornwall made it very clear that they wish to have control over our fishery, our agricultural policy, our money, our laws and our borders. I will evaluate those principles against the Brexit white paper and ensure that I vote in line with their wishes."

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Mr Kellner added: “Labour’s leadership, and many of its MPs have been cautious about backing UK membership of the EU, or [supporting] a public vote, for fear of alienating pro-Brexit Labour voters.”

“This survey shows that the reason for fear has significantly diminished – and the greater danger now for Labour could be to alienate the big and growing ... pro-EU and pro public vote majority among Labour supporters, even in the party’s heartlands.”

Labour has repeatedly refused to rule out supporting a fresh public vote on the final terms of any Brexit deal, but the party’s shadow international trade secretary, Barry Gardiner, said this week such a move could lead to “civil disobedience” and social disruption in Britain.

At the 2016 referendum voters in 11 out of 12 areas in the northeast voted to leave the EU by a large margin – the new poll suggests the divide is now evenly split.

Asked how they would vote in a referendum today, 42 per cent of respondents said they would back remain while the same proportion said they would support leave. Nearly 10 per cent said they did not know and 7 per cent said they would not vote.

When pollsters removed “don’t knows”, they found a 50-50 split between remain and leave voters.

Mr Kellner said: “On the night of the Brexit referendum two years ago, the early results from the northeast showed the strength of leave support, especially in Labour’s northern heartlands. YouGov’s new survey shows that a public vote today would produce a very different result.

“Instead of the crushing 16-point victory for the leave campaign two years ago, the two sides are running neck and neck, with both on 50 per cent.

“The swing in the northeast is higher than the national average; and there is a clear reason for this. The region is more strongly Labour than any other: the party has 26 of the northeast’s 29 MPs. And while the views of the relatively small number of Conservative voters towards Brexit are virtually unchanged, Labour voters have moved from 59 per cent to 68 per cent remain.”

The survey’s total sample size was 962 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 31 July and 20 August 2018. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18 and over).

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