A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study.

Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.

Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.

Download the new Independent Premium app

Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

Peter Kellner, YouGov’s former president, said the finding supported calls for the public to be given a Final Say on Brexit. 

Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016.

“This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.

“The latest research shows that this depends not only on the proposition that voters cannot change their minds, but on a specific definition of ‘the people’.”

Shape Created with Sketch. People's Vote march – demanding vote on final Brexit deal

Show all 30
left Created with Sketch. right Created with Sketch.

The analysis found that an extra 235,000 Remain voters join the electorate each year, as 395,000 reach voting age and 160,000 die.

At the same time, the number of Leave supporters falls by 260,000 a year. 320,000 die and just 60,000 reach voting age.

YouGov found that young people who did not vote in the 2016 referendum are particularly supportive of calls for another poll.

Among under-25s who did not vote in 2016 but would be certain to do so in a new referendum, 82 per cent said they would back Remain.

And 75 per cent of people who were too young to vote in 2016 say they want a Final Say vote.

Around 87 per cent of under-25s would now vote to stay the EU.

Comments

Share your thoughts and debate the big issues

Learn more
Please be respectful when making a comment and adhere to our Community Guidelines.
  • You may not agree with our views, or other users’, but please respond to them respectfully
  • Swearing, personal abuse, racism, sexism, homophobia and other discriminatory or inciteful language is not acceptable
  • Do not impersonate other users or reveal private information about third parties
  • We reserve the right to delete inappropriate posts and ban offending users without notification

You can find our Community Guidelines in full here.

Create a commenting name to join the debate

Please try again, the name must be unique Only letters and numbers accepted
Loading comments...
Loading comments...
Please be respectful when making a comment and adhere to our Community Guidelines.
  • You may not agree with our views, or other users’, but please respond to them respectfully
  • Swearing, personal abuse, racism, sexism, homophobia and other discriminatory or inciteful language is not acceptable
  • Do not impersonate other users or reveal private information about third parties
  • We reserve the right to delete inappropriate posts and ban offending users without notification

You can find our Community Guidelines in full here.
Loading comments...
Loading comments...