Brexit: Chances of EU trade deal ’less than 50%’, says Michael Gove

Cabinet Office minister insists UK will not go back to negotiating table in 2021

The chance of a trade deal with the EU is “less than 50 per cent”, Cabinet minister Michael Gove has said.

Mr Gove has previously put the likelihood of a deal at 66 per cent, and his gloomier assessment chimes with prime minister Boris Johnson’s recent warnings that a no-deal Brexit - which he refers to as an “Australian” outcome, as Australia has no trade deal with the EU - is the most likely outcome of negotiation.

His comments suggest that he believes that a no-deal crash-out is becoming more likely at the end of 2020. But they will be seen by many as a matter of theatrics designed to reassure hardcore Brexiteers that the UK is not giving ground in a desperate bid to avoid the economic damage which most experts expect as a result of failure to secure a free trade agreement (FTA).

The Cabinet Office minister, who has a leading role in the Brexit process, ruled out any return to the negotiating table if the UK passes the deadline without a deal and is forced onto World Trade Organisation terms.

He told the House of Commons Committee on Future Relations with the EU: “The view has been expressed that, if there was no agreement by 31 December, we would go back to the negotiating table in a month, two months’ or three months’ time.”

But he insisted that in fact: “That would be it. We would have left on WTO terms.

“It’s still the case, of course, that there would be contact between the UK and European nations and politicians, as you would expect.

“But what we would not be doing is attempting to negotiate a new deal.”

Asked what likelihood there was of a deal being struck by Sunday - identified by the European Parliament as the final deadline for a free trade agreement to be ratified by the end of 2020 - Mr Gove indicated that he believes that the chances had slipped since October, when he put them at 66 per cent.

He told MPs: "I think at the moment … regrettably, the chances are more likely that we won't secure an agreement, so at the moment less than 50 per cent.”

Mr Gove said that if a deal was reached by chief negotiators David Frost and Michel Barnier  in talks taking place in Brussels over the coming days, ministers would want to give MPs “ample time” to a bill implementing it.

He said the Commons could sit on any days up to 31 December - with the exception of Christmas Day - to debate and vote on the legislation.

He did not rule out the possibility of the debate lasting a number of days, though he stressed that this would ultimately be a decision for parliament and the Speaker operating through the “usual channels”.

“Though it is obviously inconvenient for MPs, I am sure all of us would want as much time as possible to look at the legislation and to review the deal that’s been agreed,” he said.

But he ruled out any free trade agreement being ratified in retrospect in Westminster, even if this is the route eventually taken by the European Parliament.

Mr Gove acknowledged that there was a potential for disruption at UK ports on 1 January, when trucks will require considerable additional paperwork with or without a deal, because of the UK leaving the EU’s single market and customs union.

But he insisted that official projections of queues of 7,000 lorries were a “worst case scenario” and said he expected problems to clear within weeks.

“I expect we would find that after an initial few days and weeks of potential disruption, things would resolve themselves into a new normal relatively early in the New Year,” he said.