Government doesn't know 'how coronavirus will respond' as more people return to work, admits cabinet minister

Grant Shapps raises prospect of critical ‘R’ reproduction rate going back 'above one' if lockdown easing backfires

The transport secretary has admitted ministers “don’t know how the virus will respond”, even as more staff are encouraged to return to work today.

Grant Shapps raised the prospect of the critical ‘R’ reproduction rate going back “above one” if the lockdown easing backfired – a day after a group of scientists warned the strategy was “dangerous”.

“We don’t know how virus will respond,” Mr Shapps said, warning it depended on whether people followed new guidance widely criticised as confusing.

The admission comes despite ensuring the ‘R’ rate remains below one – meaning transmission of coronavirus is slowing – being the key government test for relaxing restrictions.

Before the changes were agreed, scientists were expected to set out specific forecasts for the impact of each possible loosening, such as allowing people to go outdoors more, reopening schools or more workplaces opening up.

Mr Shapps described the changes being introduced – the most significant being staff returning to work if they can’t work at home – as “baby steps” that could be reversed.

And, he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: “If we see the R number go up again – particularly above one – we will have to take steps.

“We all know what that means, it means going back to staying at home.”

Seeking to calm fears of overcrowding on public transport, he added: “We have got a big team of marshallers going out through Network Rail, Transport for London.

“We have got the British Transport Police out there and we are even bringing in volunteers to remind people that we don't want to see platforms crowded.”

Mr Shapps also admitted a recession was looming, after the release of GDP figures for the first quarter of the year revealed the fastest shrinking since 2008.

“It is fairly clear that, since most of the impact will be in second quarter, that we will be,” he said.

And he ducked questions about likely spending cuts, pay freezes or tax cuts to follow, after a leaked Treasury document set out the measures being considered.

“I think it’s far too early to be getting into that,” Mr Shapps said, adding: “We cannot know where we will be.”

The new transport guidance urges people to avoid public transport if at all possible, by walking, cycling or driving to work.

People from different households may be able to share cars provided that they keep the windows open, it states.

Buses and trains will be limited to 10 per cent of normal capacity to maintain social distancing.

“We are asking people to be very sensible and not flood back to public transport,” Mr Shapps said.

“Even with all the trains and buses back to running when they are, there will not be enough space. It is very important that people don't overcrowd that system that will be extremely restricted for the time being.”