Coronavirus: Lockdown lifting measures next week will be ‘very limited’, No 10 clarifies

Assurance comes as Nicola Sturgeon warns dilution of ‘stay home’ message could be catastrophic

The government has backed away hastily from suggestions of a significant relaxation of lockdown restrictions next week, with Boris Johnson insisting that any return to normal life will be undertaken with “maximum caution”.

It came as the government’s chief statistician revealed that the crucial coronavirus rate of transmission – known as R – has started to creep up again because of a growing epidemic in care homes.

And it followed a horrified reaction in Edinburgh and Cardiff to reports the PM was planning to ditch his central “stay home” message and give the green light to picnics, sunbathing and unlimited exercise, with Nicola Sturgeon warning premature easing of restrictions could be “catastrophic” and both Scotland and Wales threatening to break away from the unified UK approach to the outbreak.

Ministers were forced to issue reminders to the public that strict social-distancing rules remain in place, amid fears that “mixed messages” over lockdown will tempt people to take to the parks and beaches on what is expected to be a sunny bank holiday weekend, potentially sparking a second peak in infections.

Cabinet conducted a six-week review of lockdown after receiving advice from the prime minister’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, but agreed to make no change to the guidance before a 7pm televised address to the nation by Mr Johnson on Sunday.

Mr Johnson’s effective deputy Dominic Raab said the PM would use the statement to set out a “roadmap” with “milestones” on the route back to normal life, though the precise timing of the return of schools, office working, international travel and mass gatherings like sports events will remain dependent on the progress of the eradication of the virus, which claimed a further 539 lives on Wednesday to bring the official UK death toll to 30,615.

“That way we can provide the country with a better understanding of what lies ahead, we can offer reassurance that we will adjust the restrictions to the minimum necessary to prevent a second spike in the virus and we can give people the confidence that we are doing it in a way that will protect life and preserve our way of life,” said Mr Raab at the daily Downing Street briefing.

He cautioned that any changes in the short term will be “modest, small, incremental and very carefully monitored”, with the government ready to reimpose restrictions nationally or on a localised basis if the R figure moves up beyond one – the point at which each Covid-19 patient infects an average of one other person.

Disease-modelling expert Professor John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, warned that R – which reached around three at the height of the outbreak, causing a rapid growth in numbers of cases – was again on the rise, telling a committee of MPs it was now only just below one, up from 0.6-0.7 two weeks ago.

And national statistician Sir Ian Diamond said the increase was “driven by the epidemic in care homes”.

Despite figures showing weekly deaths in care homes falling from 2,379 to 2,044 in the week to 1 May, Sir Ian said that while the virus’s spread in the community had fallen sharply – particularly in London – the authorities face a “challenge” in getting on top of infections in care homes and hospitals.

And he cautioned against early moves to ease restrictions on social contact, telling the Downing Street conference: “All the data we’re looking at shows the success of social distancing and … I do believe that social distancing and maintaining it over the next few weeks is going to be essential to continuing to reduce the epidemic.”

Briefing cabinet on his plans, Mr Johnson said: “In considering whether there could be any easement of the existing guidelines, we are not going to do anything that risks a second peak.

“We will advance with maximum caution in order to protect the NHS and save lives.

“We will be guided at every step by science and data and we will closely track the impact of any easing of social-distancing measures and will not hesitate to tighten the rules if required.”

Mr Johnson’s official spokesperson told reporters to expect any relaxation of guidelines next week to be “very limited”, but declined to confirm or deny any details of the proposed changes.

“We are at a critical moment in the fight against the virus and we will not do anything which risks throwing away the efforts and sacrifices of the British people,” he said.


 Dominic Raab addresses journalists in Downing Street 
 (Reuters)

Following cabinet, Mr Johnson discussed his plans with the leaders of opposition parties at Westminster and first ministers of the devolved administrations.

Downing Street signalled that the PM had indicated he was ready to see the four nations of the UK emerge from lockdown at different paces.

A spokesperson said: “He reiterated his commitment to continuing our UK-wide approach to tackling coronavirus, even if different parts of the UK begin to move at slightly different speeds. Those decisions will be made based on the science for each nation.”

Both Edinburgh and Cardiff made clear they were ready to break step with England if they felt Mr Johnson was going too far and too fast in reopening the country.

Speaking at her daily coronavirus briefing, Ms Sturgeon said she would prefer the whole UK to make changes “together at the same pace”, but added: “I will not be pressured into lifting restrictions prematurely before I am as certain as I can be that we will not be risking a resurgence of infection rates.”

And Ms Sturgeon said: “I particularly strongly believe for us to drop the clear, well-understood ‘stay at home’ message right now could be a potentially catastrophic mistake.”

Following a meeting of Wales’s cabinet, a spokesperson for the country’s government warned that public discussion of possible easing of restrictions risked undermining the “stay home” message, and indicated that Cardiff may take a different approach from London.

Downing Street has already started replacing the “stay home” instruction with the words “stay safe” in messages issued on its Twitter feed, and there is speculation the latter will be ditched altogether as the government tries to coax people into returning to work where it is safe to do so.​

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer welcomed the fact that Mr Johnson was setting out an exit strategy, but told reporters: “The health and safety of the nation has to come first and therefore we cannot lift these restrictions until we’re clear that the infection is under control.”

Mr Raab urged the public to stick to the instruction to stay home except for a few limited reasons and to maintain two metres’ separation while outside over the weekend.

“Whether you’re in London, Edinburgh, Cardiff or Belfast as we enter another long bank holiday weekend, I think the message is very clear – follow the guidance,” he said.

“There is no change today in the guidance or in the rules.”