Election poll latest: Theresa May will win biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher, final survey predicts

Exclusive: Eve-of-vote poll by ComRes for The Independent gives Ms May a 10-point lead, indicating an 74-seat majority

Joe Watts,John Rentoul
Thursday 08 June 2017 20:40 BST
2017 General Election - In quotes and pictures

Theresa May looks on course for a definitive victory over Jeremy Corbyn in the general election, as the final poll for The Independent shows her party enjoying a 10-point lead over Labour.

If the figures in the ComRes poll are replicated on Thursday, projections indicate a concrete 74-seat majority – the largest the Conservatives have secured since the days of Margaret Thatcher.

But the survey also gives key insights as to where Mr Corbyn could have fallen short, despite Labour having halved the Conservative lead since the start of the election campaign.

The survey shows a majority of the public raising concerns over Mr Corbyn's ability to pay for his spending promises and his approach to security and Brexit, while many also believe there is now a need for a new centre-ground political party in the UK.

Ms May, Mr Corbyn and Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron all made last-ditch pleas for votes as they travelled the country in a frenetic final day of campaigning, but the ComRes poll suggests the Tories have sealed the deal.

It puts the Conservatives on 44 per cent of the vote, down three points, Labour on 34 per cent, down one, the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent, Ukip on 5 per cent and the Greens on 2 per cent, all up one.

UK leaders cast their votes

According to Electoral Calculus, the numbers would deliver Ms May 362 seats in the Commons, 31 more than her party currently enjoys, while Labour would be left with 212, 20 fewer than they have now. The projection also suggests the Lib Dems and Scottish National Party would lose seats.

Ms May could comfortably claim a strong mandate from the result, while the 74-seat cushion in the Commons will mean she can be far more certain of pushing Brexit and other policies through both Houses of Parliament.

ComRes also produced a second projection, reallocating “don’t know” voters on the basis of preferred prime minister, in which the Conservative lead rises to 12 points, on 46 per cent, compared with Labour’s 34 per cent.

But with people now weighing their final decisions, the poll also sheds light on voters' concerns about Mr Corbyn and his manifesto.

Participants were asked which statements out of a range of options, would best match how they might feel if waking up on Friday to learn either Ms May or Mr Corbyn is victorious.

The starkest result was in response to the statement that people would feel concerned the country is “unable to pay for everything the new government wants to do” – with 62 per cent saying it would be a fear if Labour wins.

A majority of voters, some 55 per cent, also indicated concerns over Mr Corbyn on Brexit and national security, an issue thrust to prominence in recent weeks following two terror attacks.

Another answer suggested that 51 per cent of people were worried about the SNP's influence on Mr Corbyn's party in the result of a hung parliament.

The final survey is also consistent with previous ComRes polling in showing that 50 per cent of 2015 Ukip voters say they will now vote Conservative – potentially boosting Ms May's party by almost two million votes or around six points on the Tory vote share.

But the survey also signalled a longing from almost half of the voting public for a new centre-ground party in the UK, after both Labour and the Conservatives shifted towards their fringes.

Some 45 per cent said a new party would be welcome, while voters were evenly split over whether the country is going in the right direction or not – 42 per cent saying it is, and 43 per cent saying it is not.

ComRes interviewed 2,051 GB adults online 5-7 June 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables on the ComRes website

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