EU referendum: ICM and YouGov polls confirm Leave lead

ICM and YouGov surveys show a widening lead for Leave

Jon Stone
Tuesday 14 June 2016 09:37
Boris Johnson talks to supporters during a Vote Leave rally in London
Boris Johnson talks to supporters during a Vote Leave rally in London

Britain appears poised to leave the European Union with just over a week to go before referendum day.

Two new polls released on Monday night from the ICM and YouGov firms show significant leads for the Leave campaign after weeks of tightening.

Following on from and Independent/ORB survey late last week showing a 10-point lead for Leave, ICM gave Leave a six-point leave and YouGov a 7-point lead.

The morning after shift was reported The Sun newspaper, the highest circulation print paper in Britain, announced on its front page that it would back Leave.

A polling average calculated by the Britain Elects website found Leave narrowly ahead overall on 46.7 per cent and Remain on 44.5 per cent.

As ever, a breakdown of age groups by YouGov shows the elderly driving support for Brexit, with young people strongly opposed.

75 per cent of 18-24 year olds want to remain in the EU, and 50 per cent of 25-49 year olds. However just 38 per cent of 50-64 year old and 34 per cent of the 65+ age group wish to do so.

Pollsters currently believe that the traditionally far higher turnout amongst the old will see Britain leave the EU, barring any changes in the final week of the campaign.

Later in the week Survation, Ipsos-MORI and ComRes polls are expected to shed further light on the state of the race.

In recent weeks the Leave campaign has increasingly focused on immigration as a reason for wanting to leave the EU, while the Remain campaign has warned of the economic risks of Brexit.

Vote Leave claimed today that EU subsidies to farmers, culture, and other areas worth millions of pounds would be continued to 2020 in the event of Brexit.

Alan Johnson, the head of Labour In, said this morning that the Brexiteers were practicing “fantasy economics”.

The European Union in-out referendum will take place on 23 June 2016. The deadline to register to vote has now passed.

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