EU referendum: Poll reveals 10-point swing towards Brexit as campaigns enter final stages

Other polls over the past week have also shown Leave taking the lead

Jon Stone
Thursday 16 June 2016 09:13
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A majority of the public fear a no-deal end to Brexit transition, new polling suggests
A majority of the public fear a no-deal end to Brexit transition, new polling suggests

Another poll has shown the Leave campaign taking the lead in the EU referendum with a huge swing.

The Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard newspaper shows Leave with 53 per cent of the vote and Remain on 47 per cent cent.

Leave was up 10 per cent on the previous poll while Remain was down 10 per cent.

All you need to know about the EU referendum

The survey comes exactly a week before polling day as the Remain campaign loses ground on the issues of immigration and contributions to the EU budget.

It follows surveys in the past week from ORB, ICM, and YouGov which also show the Leave campaign opening up a margin over Remain.

Supplementary questions in the poll suggest that key economic arguments made by Leave are cutting through with voters, while Remain is floundering.

Just 17 per cent of voters believe George Osborne’s key claim that households will be £4,300 worse off after Brexit, while 47 per cent accept Vote Leave’s statement that Britain pays £350 million to the EU every week.

That fact comes despite almost all economists and economic organisations backing the Treasury’s claim and deriding Vote Leave’s as misleading.

Polls show older voters backing Leave while the young overwhelmingly want to stay in the EU.

Assumed higher turnout amongst older generations has however given Leave a significant boost.

The race could be tight as polls have been wrong before: during the AV referendum they overstated the position of “change” side of the argument.

During the Scottish independence referendum some polls also shows independence ahead, though it ultimately lost.

The polling industry also called the 2015 general election wrong, predicting a hung parliament and the possibility of Labour coming back into government.

The European Union referendum will take place on 23 June. The deadline to register to vote has already passed.

The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. So until 23 June we we’re running a series of question and answer features that explain the most important issues in a detailed, dispassionate way to help inform your decision.

What is Brexit and why are we having an EU referendum?

Does the UK need to take more control of its sovereignty?

Could the UK media swing the EU referendum one way or another?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

Will leaving the EU lead to the break-up of the UK?

What will happen to immigration if there's Brexit?

Will Brexit make the UK more or less safe?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will leaving the EU save taxpayers money and mean more money for the NHS?

What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?

Will Brexit help or damage the environment?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

What will Brexit mean for British expats in Europe?

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