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Tony Blair accused of patronising the public by suggesting they cannot be trusted to make the 'sensible choice' on staying in EU

Blair used a speech to condemn the Tory policy of holding a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, saying it would cause economic 'chaos'

Tuesday 07 April 2015 22:52 BST

The former Prime Minister does not think a referendum should be held (Getty Images)

Tony Blair has been accused of patronising the British people by suggesting that they cannot be trusted to make the “sensible choice” on whether the UK should remain part of the EU.

In his first major intervention in the general election campaign, the former Labour prime minister used a speech in his former constituency of Sedgefield to condemn the Conservatives’ policy of holding a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, saying it would cause economic “chaos”.

Mr Blair, who is pro-European and does not think a referendum should be held, said the emotions that such a vote would whip up across Britain would be similar to those felt during the debate over Scottish independence, which he was also against.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

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1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“My position has moved: no party can win a majority now. I have also shifted in favour of the Conservatives winning more seats than Labour. That, however, assumes that the current Tory momentum is maintained and that they don’t do anything daft or careless between now and polling day. But the underlying pattern is distinctly in their favour.” (In January he predicted Labour would be the largest party, possibly with a small majority.)

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“Probably: a ‘well hung parliament’. Possibly: Conservatives winning most votes and seats, thanks, in part, to SNP gains at Labour’s expense. Speculation: Conservatives unable to form another coalition, not having enough seats with just the Lib Dems, but Labour better placed with SNP and Lib Dems – albeit informally.” (In January Twyman said: “Gun to my head? Labour minority government.”)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“Stuck in ‘too close to call’ mode still, made harder by the way votes translate into seats in Parliament. If the parties remain neck and neck, Labour might just end up with more seats, but not a majority. We still have weeks of campaign to go and no clear picture for the marginals, where the polling that is being done suggests a lot of local variations that have plenty of potential to surprise us in May.” (Last time Page said it was a “mug’s game” to make predictions four months before an election.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“Since January, the Conservatives have clearly improved on the polls relative to Labour to the point where I’d expect the Conservatives to win the most seats as well as the most votes 7 May. What’s less clear is whether the Conservatives would be able to form a government. (In January Nye expected a hung parliament in which Labour would win most seats but not necessarily most votes.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Something would need to change dramatically for there to be any chance of a one-party majority government. My guess: the Tories will be largest party, but some way short of forming even a two-party coalition. A Labour minority government seems most likely, but I won’t be putting money on it.” (Prediction unchanged since January.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“On Survation’s public polling, Ed Miliband remains the person most likely to form the next government. However, he’s far from the workable majority figure required [321]. Friday 8 May will remain a day of deals and discussions with other parties to form the next government.” (In January he expected Labour to be the largest party in a hung parliament, by 40-50 seats over the Conservatives.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“It’s less a case of who wins but who can scrape over the line. Labour polls better on the NHS; the Tories poll better on the economy. Can any claim additional territory from the other over the remaining weeks? Probably not. But our polls show that the public thinks the Tories will be the largest party. In the absence of a firm lead, I’ll go with the wisdom of crowds.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Despite the recent weekly statistical ties, we’ve witnessed the faint whispers of movement in the air and a slow, unsteady and shaky sway towards the Tories. How this shift plays out over the coming weeks obviously depends on a huge number of factors. My call, if this holds fast and momentum gathers: Conservatives 288, Labour 267, SNP 45, Lib Dems 24, Plaid Cymru 3, Ukip 3, Greens 2.” (In January he put Labour on 320 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“I’m tempted to say: how should I know? I’m just a pollster. But I feel that Miliband may just have raised himself from the grave, so I’ll add a couple to where I had them before. Everyone else largely becalmed although, I see the Greens disappearing from view and Ukip sliding a touch. Tories 34 per cent, Lab 32 per cent, Lib Dems 14 per cent, Ukip 12 per cent. I don’t trust any academic model that translates vote shares into seats, so a seat projection from this is a pure and simple guess, which is Labour to be touching 300 seats with the Tories just behind.” (In January Boon predicted Labour on 290 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

“Nationalism is a powerful sentiment. Let that genie out of the bottle and it is a Herculean task to put it back. Reason alone struggles. The referendum on Europe carries with it the same risk,” he said.

“For that reason, should the Conservatives win, one other thing will be certain: the PM will be spending more energy, will have more sleepless nights about it, be more focused on it than literally any other single issue.

“He knows the vastness of the decision. He knows the penalty of failure. He knows exit will define his legacy. And, following the Scottish referendum, he knows the perilous fragility of public support for the sensible choice.”

His remarks were immediately seized upon by David Cameron, who said it was “extraordinary” that Mr Blair “doesn’t think people should be given a say in a referendum on Europe”. He added later: “You cannot ignore the will of the people.”

George Osborne also criticised Mr Blair’s comments. “What he’s really saying is he doesn’t want to ask the British people their opinion, their view, respectfully. Well I disagree with him,” the Chancellor said.

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