Labour and Tories heading for dead heat

A dead heat between Labour and the Tories is in prospect at the next general election if the results reflect the latest opinion polls.

A "poll of polls" study for The Independent shows that, when forthcoming changes to constituency boundaries are taken into account, the Tories would have 289 seats, Labour 286, the Liberal Democrats 45 and other parties 30 on a uniform swing. The photo-finish would mean the Tories or Labour would be able to form a precarious majority with the Liberal Democrats' support.

The weighted average of the regular polls by ICM, Mori, Populus and YouGov in June gives the Tories a six-point lead over Labour, down one point on May. It shows the Tories on 39 per cent (unchanged since the previous month), Labour on 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent (unchanged). But the Tories are still just below the 40 per cent share of the vote they achieved at the May local elections.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures, said: "Last month's polls have confirmed those of May and late April that we are now, for the first time since Black Wednesday in 1992, in a world of Tory leads."

He has also analysed recent poll findings on whether Labour's fortunes would be improved if Tony Blair stands down and is succeeded by Gordon Brown. Despite some headlines to the contrary, he said it was "highly improbable" that Labour's performance would be worse under Mr Brown.

Professor Curtice concluded: "Simply replacing Mr Blair with Mr Brown clearly will not on its own solve Labour's electoral problems. Gordon Brown's problem is that he is both less popular than he was and no more popular than David Cameron." For example, in 2001 Mr Brown had a net score of +45 when Mori asked whether he was a strength/weakness to his party, compared with +26 now. Mr Cameron now scores +31 on strength/ weakness and +10 on in/out of touch, both a little better than the Chancellor.

"This helps explain why the mere mention of Mr Brown's name [by pollsters] does not have a dramatic impact on Labour's fortunes," said Professor Curtice. "But the suggestion that replacing Mr Blair with Mr Brown would have a direct adverse impact on Labour's fortunes is clearly highly suspect.

"A more sensible view is that getting rid of Mr Blair might be thought to be a necessary condition for a Labour recovery, but it evidently is no longer (if it ever was) a sufficient one."

Backbench allies of Mr Brown want Mr Blair to stand down sooner rather than later, arguing that it will be harder for Labour to wipe out the Tories' poll lead if it is entrenched. They say the Chancellor will not be able to go head-to-head with Mr Cameron until he becomes Prime Minister.

But Blairite MPs insist that there is no reason for Mr Blair to rush his departure. They claim that Mr Blair, by pushing ahead with his policy agenda, can win back Middle England voters who have by now deserted Labour. They argue that the party's prospects will be enhanced if Mr Brown is still enjoying a honeymoon period when the next election is held, saying that means he should not take over too quickly.