Local elections were ‘devastating’ for Labour, says top pollster John Curtice

Exclusive: Curtice warns that Starmer’s failings have opened the door for Reform, while fellow pollster Luke Tryl suggests the Tories only have 12 months to turn things around

Labour is being rejected in its heartlands as disappointment among voters about the party's first 10 months in office has opened the door to Reform, Professor Sir John Curtice has warned.

The leading pollster says that the “devastating” local election results have shown Labour support is “in free fall” and voters lost to Reform and the Greens “are not likely to return to the party any time soon”.

He also suggested that Labour MPs are now right to fear Reform and Nigel Farage more than Kemi Badenoch and the Tories, with the beleaguered Conservative Party leader already facing plots to have her removed.

Sir John’s warning comes as Luke Tryl, executive director of polling organisation More in Common, has warned that the Tories have just 12 months to turn things around before being consigned to irrelevance.

John Curtice’s analysis is bad news for Labour and the Tories (PA)

His warning came after The Independent revealed that Tory MPs are already plotting to remove leader Kemi Badenoch. The revelation led to newly elected Tory mayor for Peterborough and Cambridgeshire, Paul Bristow, the only success story for the party this week, demanding plotters “just stop it!”

Meanwhile, Labour’s woes are set to get worse amid revelations that Mr Farage intends to use Reform’s control of 10 councils to launch a series of taxpayer funded legal challenges on net zero policies and housing migrants to tie Sir Keir Starmer’s government in knots.

Writing for The Independent, Sir John pointed out that Labour had “little to lose” at the local elections last week because they did very badly when the same seats were last contested in 2021.

Nevertheless, he pointed out that Labour still managed to lose two thirds of the seats it was defending.

Sir John noted: “Labour’s own vote was in free fall. Despite having done so poorly in the local elections four years ago, the party’s vote fell on average since then by as much as nine points.

“Crucially, it collapsed most of all in the party’s heartlands, limited though they were in number on Thursday. In seats Labour was defending its vote fell on average by as much as 19 points.”

Keir Starmer vowed to continue with his plans for change (PA)

He added that unlike the Tories, the strength of Reform’s advance made “little difference on how far the Labour vote dropped”.

In seats Reform did poorly in, Labour maintained its support, while in seats Mr Farage’s party was strong in Labour’s vote dropped an average of 11.5 per cent.

He noted that “it is also potentially a sign that disappointment with Labour’s record in office is particularly marked among some of its core supporters” with rows over two child benefit, removing winter fuel payment from pensioners, slashing disability benefits and not taking a firm stance against Israel over Gaza.

Sir John added: “The pattern was devastating. Labour’s collapse left the door open to Reform to take many a seat from the party, albeit sometimes by quite a narrow margin.

“Labour’s problem on Thursday was not simply the appeal of Reform. It was also itself. The party has seemingly lost the confidence of many of its heartland voters.”

Meanwhile, things look even worse for the Tories with Mr Tryl claiming they “are at the moment of maximum danger”.

He said: “What you're seeing now is former Tory bastions like Kent where they have lost almost all their seats, going from having almost total control to being a third or fourth party.

“You've also got the fact that institutionally councillors make up a big part of your base. Losing so many seats in the heartlands ... you can't get that manpower back. It furthers the risk that they sort of just slowly or, in the case of Thursday night, quite dramatically slide into irrelevance.”

Kemi Badenoch’s future is already under the microscope (PA)

He also noted that Reform are now in second place in most Labour and Lib Dem seats giving them an edge as change candidates in the future.

He said that the only advantage the Tories have is that they have many more MPs but with question marks over Ms Badenoch, he said: “When I go around the country many people don’t know who she is.”

Giving the party just 12 months to turn things around, he said: “I think they have until next year's local elections, Holyrood elections and Senedd elections to show that they're still relevant.”

But the politician who represented the only major success story of the night for the Tories, new Peterborough and Cambridgeshire mayor, Paul Bristow has urged his party to “step up” and “stop the constant infighting” with changes of leader.

He admitted that as a former Peterborough MP a “personal vote” for him “more than the party brand” helped get him over the line.

“Just stop doing this,” he said to plotters. “Just look like we're up for it. Acknowledge that this was the worst defeat the Conservative Party has ever faced, hold your hands up. Understand that we messed up for the final two years of the last government, but get out there and win.”

He argued that politicians now “need to make brands of themselves” not just rely on their parties to succeed.

“People like [shadow cabinet members] Andrew Griffiths, Chris Philp and Robert Jenrick, they're making brands for themselves, and they look like they're up for it. Kemi has now started to do that as well.”