Local elections: Scandal, death and £360m overspend dent expectations

Four years after the royal pomp and street celebrations at the opening of the first Scottish Parliament in more than three centuries, there is a decidedly downbeat air to the campaign for the Holyrood elections on 1 May. It was never meant to be this way.

Back in 1999, devolution was riding high in voters' hearts. It was bolstered by a cross-party consensus, a healthy majority in a referendum and a First Minister in Donald Dewar who was well known and respected by many. Perhaps because of those high expectations, as well as the upheaval caused by the death of Mr Dewar and the resignation of his successor, Henry McLeish, disillusionment appears to have replaced national pride in a large section of the electorate.

Only now is the real impact of Mr Dewar's demise in October 2000 clear, followed as it was by the chaotic regime of Mr McLeish, who resigned over an expenses farce which he somehow allowed to spiral into a scandal, and the lacklustre approach of the current Bute House incumbent, Jack McConnell. Take in the spiralling costs of the Holyrood Parliament – now estimated at close to £400m against an initial estimate of £40m – and the politicians are running scared that the turn-out may dip below 50 per cent.

When voters are offered the opportunity to return 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament to their seats on The Mound in Edinburgh, one of the most important factors will be the turn-out. Four years ago, 58 per cent of those eligible to vote chose to do so, an impressively high figure for a new institution. But with the war in Iraq all but obscuring the visibility of the election, many observers are expecting a much lower figure this time.

The importance of the elections, not just to Scotland but to British politics as a whole, has been underlined by the fact that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have made campaign visits in recent days. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor know that national issues such as the economy, the NHS, education and crime will dominate the elections to the Edinburgh Parliament, with devolved policy differences giving them vital pointers to any dangers or rewards likely at the next general election. Even with a reduced number of Scots MPs in the next Parliament, Labour knows that it must do well in one of its strongest heartlands.

The Scottish National Party, acutely aware of the lack of popular support for independence, has certainly been trying to concentrate on issues such as public services. The SNP has campaigned hard on four themes, promising 1,000 more police on the streets, an 11 per cent pay rise to nurses and midwives, opposing private finance initiatives for schools and hospitals, and pledging a business tax cut to boost the flagging Scottish economy.

Almost as an afterthought, it offers a referendum on independence at some point late in its first term of power.

Not surprisingly, Labour is determined not to let the nationalists off the hook so easily and Mr Blair made an attack on the idea of independence in his main message last week.

Jack McConnell, the Scottish Labour leader, aims to make an impact as a Blairite with a distinctively tartan approach. A former teacher, he has made education one of his main themes, promising to cut some secondary school class sizes in maths and English to 20 pupils for secondary school pupils.

Reflecting the Scots' strong interest in green issues, another distinctively devolved policy is Labour's pledge to create a National Coastline Park.

Labour has also announced plans to scrap the Scottish Prison Service and replace it with an American-style, one-stop corrections body to deal with offenders behind bars and in the community. In a move that will be monitored by David Blunkett, the Home Secretary, the new Correctional Agency would take away the burden of administering non-custodial sentences from council social work departments.

But with the Chancellor campaigning in his own backyard, the economy is the issue on which the party hopes it has the strongest cards. While the SNP has homed in on Scotland's poor economic growth – the rate is forecast at 0.7 per cent compared with 2 per cent for the United Kingdom as a whole – Labour has pointed to high job creation. Total employment is up 53,000 over the past year alone and long-term youth unemployment has all but disappeared.

Proportional representation militates against any one party achieving a majority and the Liberal Democrats will hope to gain seats, claiming that their role in the coalition Executive has proved they are credible in power and can force Labour to adopt more radical policies.Although their alternative measures for care of the elderly and tuition fees are not yet settled, the party will suggest it has ensured that the heartlessness of New Labour in Westminster on such issues has been halted at Hadrian's Wall. The Conservatives will be battling with the Liberal Democrats to come third in the overall share of the vote in constituencies and lists, but so far they have struggled to shine. Despite, or perhaps because of, appearances by Iain Duncan Smith, their leader, on the campaign trail, they are vulnerable to small changes in the vote.

The party's woes were compounded a few weeks ago when two of its list members defected to the new People's Alliance party, a moderate right-of-centre group that is fighting its first campaign.

The Scottish Socialist Party, led by Tommy Sheridan, offers a home for disillusioned left-wing voters, outflanking the nationalists in particular by pledging a quicker independence referendum. Scots voters certainly seem to know what they want from their parties, with a recent poll of 21 main policies putting more police officers on the streets top of the list, followed by paying nurses "a lot more" than at present. Support for the country's farming and fishing communities was third, followed by ensuring schools and hospitals were built and run by public bodies rather then private-sector companies. Independence came much lower down the list.

Given its campaign priorities, the survey ought to give the SNP hope. Yet the most recent opinion poll of voting intention put Labour 13 points ahead of its rival, up eight points in a month. The poll by System Three for The Herald newspaper suggested the party could gain an extra seat in the elections, restoring it to the 56 it had in 1999 before it lost one to the Tories in a by-election.

Forget flag-waving in the streets. For all the heat of the campaign trial and the expected threats to Labour because of the war on Iraq, this could well be a "no change" election.