Mandelson has been ousted from Labour – but Starmer hasn’t heard the end of it

The scandal has echoes of the Christopher Pincher affair – which finished off Boris Johnson, writes political editor David Maddox

Back in July 2022, when Boris Johnson’s government was rocked by yet another scandal involving a minister, Sir Keir Starmer, then the leader of the opposition, made what would become a decisive intervention in the Commons during Prime Minister’s Questions.

Sir Keir noted that Mr Johnson knew about the previous behaviour of the minister in question – Christopher Pincher, who was accused of sexual assault – and, with a note of incredulity, added: “But he promoted him anyway! Why?”

We often forget that it was this Pincher scandal which ultimately led to Mr Johnson's fall from office. The former deputy chief whip was accused of sexual assault in the Carlton Club in London and, although no criminal charges were brought, he was suspended for eight weeks from the Commons and quit his seat in September 2023 after losing his appeal against the suspension.

Rishi Sunak’s resignation as chancellor and Sajid Javid’s departure as health secretary after the scandal first broke was the end for Mr Johnson. Starmer then delivered the coup de grace focussed on the former prime minister’s judgement of character.

Lord Peter Mandelson, left, with prime minister Sir Keir Starmer (Carl Court/PA) (PA Wire)

But the same accusation of personal judgement could now possibly be made of Sir Keir himself regarding Mandelson.

Of course, there are many differences between the Pincher and Mandelson scandals. The central claim against Mr Johnson in the Pincher case was that he had been warned before about the allegations but appointed the former Tamworth MP to be deputy chief whip anyway.

Starmer may well not have known all the specifics of Mandelson’s personal dealings with Epstein – and many have surfaced recently.

Nevertheless, it is fair to ask – just as Starmer did himself in the Pincher affair in 2022 – why the prime minister appointed a man to Britain’s most senior and important diplomatic role when there were so many historic question marks hanging over him.

When he and his even more enthusiastic chief of staff Morgan McSweeney pushed the appointment of Mandelson as US ambassador through – despite enormous reluctance from Donald Trump’s administration – it was well known that the Epstein papers were on the verge of being released, bringing new scandal to those involved with him.

Added to that it was no state secret that Mandelson had, for a number of years, had an uncomfortably close relationship with the disgraced former financier, regularly stayed with him and had been pictured with him. It was also known that, separate to that, he had been forced to resign twice before over issues of personal impropriety.

The scandal surrounding Christopher Pincher finished Boris Johnson (PA)

When I was in Washington DC for the inauguration, those close to the incoming administration said Trump intended to reject Mandelson’s credentials as the UK’s ambassador. Part of the reasoning was over what they regarded as his suspicious links to China, but another was the Epstein issue.

Literally nobody on either side of the Atlantic is surprised that Mandelson is now deeply embroiled in the new revelations. Nor should Starmer or Mr McSweeney be now – if they had done their job properly. Yet their obsession with replicating Sir Tony Blair’s success as PM led them to push through a man who could yet bring this premiership down by association – just as Pincher did for Johnson.

Questions are still being asked about why Starmer had to be strong-armed into sacking Mandelson as ambassador last year when new revelations emerged. Then there is another question over why the PM did not have him removed from the Labour Party instead of allowing the peer to resign when more allegations emerged over the weekend. After all, as MPs are noting, he was happy enough to quickly remove the whip from Labour welfare rebels last year.

We have to remember that this prime minister, just like Mr Johnson was, is now extremely vulnerable. His poll ratings remain– and have consistently been – dire. He has at least one cabinet minister – health secretary Wes Streeting – actively seeking his job, with former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham also trying to be in the mix.

Only the blocking of Burnham last week may have prevented an attempted coup but, as The Independent revealed over the weekend, Starmer is on notice with the by-election in Gorton and Denton on 26 February and local elections on 7 May that one or other could spell the end for him if they go badly.

At such times when everything else is going against you, issues of personal judgement become even more important. This is why Starmer now risks Mandelson becoming his Christopher Pincher.