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The vast majority of voters who backed Ukip in the European elections would vote the same way at a general election, according to a new poll.
A repeat of the extraordinary results that swept Nigel Farage’s party to a historical victory could put Ukip MPs in Parliament for the first time next year.
The poll, by ComRes, suggests that 86 per cent of the 4.3 million people who voted for Ukip in the European elections will do so again.
Around 37 per cent said that they were “certain” to support the party again and 49 per cent said that they were “likely” to, while 14 per cent said that they would probably vote differently.
But even if Ukip win a majority of the vote, it is unlikely to beat the three main parties for a second time because of the voting system used.
Support would need to be concentrated in constituencies rather than being spread around the country to yield a result and the party would be unlikely to win a majority in the House of Commons.
Show all 34 1 /34In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nigel Farage celebrates with a pint after early local election results in the Hoy and Helmet pub in South Benfleet in Essex
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Ukip leader Nigel Farage stands on stage after being re-elected as an MEP flanked by fellow Ukip MEPs Janice Atkinson (R) and Diane James (L)
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In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nigel Farage on stage after being re-elected as an MEP as the South East England region results of the European Parliament elections
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In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nigel Farage (L) jokes with a TV crew before an interview at the declaration of the South East England region results of the European Parliament elections
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In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Ukip leader Nigel Farage sits with fellow candidates Janice Atkinson (L), Diane James (second right) and Ray Finch (R) as the South East England region results of the European Parliament elections are declared by the returning officer at Southampton Guildhall
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In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 A defaced UKIP poster showing the faces of Nigel Farage, David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg in Sheffield
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Labour leader Ed Miliband is greeted by supporters and councillors at Redbridge Town Hall in Ilford, Essex
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Labour leader Ed Miliband shake hands with supporters and councillors at Redbridge Town Hall in Ilford, Essex
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 David Cameron and his wife Samantha Cameron arrive at the Polling Station in Westminster Central Hall to cast their vote in the European and Local Elections in London
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nick Clegg leaves his home after disappointing results in the UK Local elections in London
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nigel Farage leaves a polling station near Biggin Hill
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Council staff count votes from local elections at Trinity School in Croydon
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Council staff count votes from local elections at Trinity School in Croydon
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) members wait for results of local election during the counting of votes at Trinity School in Croydon
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 A ballot box containing votes in local elections is emptied at Trinity School in Croydon
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 A member of the Labour Party sleeps during the counting of votes in local elections at Trinity School in Croydon
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Cut-outs of the electoral wards in the Borough of Croydon are prepared to be placed on a map of the borough whilst votes in local elections continue to be counted at Trinity School
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 David Cameron talks during a campaign rally in Ealing
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nick Clegg leaves after casting his vote at the Hall Park Centre, Sheffield
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 A Conservative Party supporter gets ready for a campaign ally in Ealing
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 David Cameron shakes a supporters hand during a Conservative party campaign rally in Ealing
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nick Clegg walks past a bus stop to cast his vote at the Hall Park Centre, Sheffield
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Liberal Democrat Leader and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg speaks to the media upon leaving The Cabinet Office, Whitehall
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nick Clegg talks to residents on Weybourne Drive as he delivers Liberal Democrats Party leaflets in Bredbury in Stockport
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nigel Farage with supporters following good results in local elections in South Ockendon
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Early local election results announced overnight show subsantial gains for UKIP
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 UKIP voters celebrate while waiting for Nigel Farage
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nigel Farage meets supporters during a visit to South Ockendon, Essex
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 A supporter gives the thumb-up for UKIP leader Nigel Farage as the latter prepares to leaves Thurrock in Essex
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 British Labour Party leader Ed Miliband speaks to journalists outside his house in North London
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Ed Miliband and his wife Justine leave a polling station after they casting their votes in Sutton, south Yorkshire
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nigel Farage gives a media interview before leaving his home in Cudham, Kent
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Nigel Farage celebrates with two supporters during a visit to Basildon, Essex
In pictures: Local and European election results 2014 Local and European election 2014 Farage's party could be on track to win the biggest share of British votes in elections for the European Parliament
Many voters in the poll said they were attracted to Ukip’s anti-immigration stance and Mr Farage’s calls for increased border controls within the European Union.
The survey was commissioned by Ukip’s biggest financial supporter, Paul Sykes, who has also pledged support for the party in the Newark by-election next week.
In a comment piece for the Telegraph , Mr Sykes claimed Conservative MPs were “in denial” about the threat Ukip posed.
He wrote: “At present Conservative MPs (with a few honourable exceptions) appear to be in denial about the scale of the popular uprising against our current rulers.
“This is despite their party finishing third in the elections.
“They appear to think that the Ukip threat will go away (it won’t) or that the economic recovery will float them off the political rocks.”
He compared the current political climate to 1997, when John Major suffered the worst Conservative defeat for more than 150 years despite strong economic growth.
The Tories finished behind Ukip and Labour in the European elections and lost hundreds of councillors from local authorities across the country.
While some analysts have claimed predominantly Conservative supporters are migrating to Ukip, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have not been immune.
The ComRes poll showed that 46 per cent of last week’s Ukip voters had supported the Tories at the 2010 general election, while 15 per cent had been Labour voters, and 16 per cent defected from the Liberal Democrats.
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