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Nigel Farage becoming prime minister is a ‘high likelihood,’ Scottish first minister says

A Reform UK government would be ‘bad for all of us,’ Mr Swinney said

Craig Paton
Thursday 17 April 2025 13:23 BST
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Ben Birchall/PA Wire)

There is a “high likelihood” that Nigel Farage becomes Britain’s next prime minister, the Scottish first minister John Swinney has said, adding that the prospect makes him “very, very worried.”

Mr Farage’s party Reform UK has seen a boost in the polls over the past twelve months, with several forecasts suggesting that the right-leaning party could win multiple seats in Scotland’s Holyrood next year.

Speaking to the Daily Record’s Planet Holyrood podcast, Mr Swinney said he was disappointed by the success of Reform UK in Scotland, and that he believes there is a high chance that Mr Farage will win the next general election.

He said: “I think there’s a high likelihood that could be the case, yes,” adding: “I worry about that very, very much.

“I think the values of the United Kingdom would be changed in an incredibly damaging way and the values of the United Kingdom would change fundamentally and how it’s perceived around the world.

“That would be bad for all of us.”

Scotland’s first minister John Swinney (Andrew Milligan/PA)
Scotland’s first minister John Swinney (Andrew Milligan/PA) (PA Wire)

The first minister is set to host a summit with political leaders next week designed to “lock out” Reform UK.

Mr Swinney also said Reform could be contenders in the upcoming Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Holyrood by-election prompted by the death of Scottish minister Christina McKelvie.

He said: “They could be, it’s early days in the by-election.

“But I’ve got a job of work to do to say to the people in Scotland that they’ve got to see through Farage.

“Because Farage is only using Scotland as a platform to spread the type of hate and division that he spreads in other parts of the United Kingdom.”

Reform UK councillor Thomas Kerr said: “John Swinney has, for the first time in his career, said something we at Reform UK can absolutely agree with – Nigel Farage is on course to make history and be our Prime Minister.

“Where he’s wrong is his assumption that Scotland won’t play its part in that goal becoming reality.

“Across swathes of Scotland, voters are ready for real and fundamental change from the politics of grievance and spin spearheaded by the Nasty Nats and John Swinney.

“His anti-democratic summit shows just how worried the political establishment are that Reform UK is here to stay.”

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