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PM makes winning the peace priority at talks in Northern Ireland

Andrew Grice,Paul Waugh
Tuesday 08 April 2003 00:00 BST
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The shape of a post-war Iraq was at the top of Tony Blair's agenda as he went into last night's talks with George Bush. The unspoken fear at the back of the Prime Minister's mind was: after winning the war, we must not lose the peace.

Mr Blair was more confident of making progress on the other two "peace" issues on the agenda – the separate processes in the Middle East and Northern Ireland – than on the tricky issue of "post-conflict Iraq". While the two leaders discussed progress in the military campaign in Iraq, the meat of their discussions over dinner at Hillsborough Castle was about a blueprint for Iraq.

Again, the Prime Minister is acting as a go-between for the United States and Europe. He is anxious to prevent a re-run of the divisive and disastrous failure to secure a United Nations resolution authorising military action in Iraq. So he is trying to clear the ground by securing broad agreement on a UN resolution on post-war Iraq before the issue is debated by the Security Council.

The nightmare scenario in Downing Street is another wrangle at the UN with rival resolutions, and grubby horse-trading in New York. Mr Blair fears that would inflict more damage on the UN at a time when its credibility is on the line, and would play into the hands of Washington hawks who want little to do with it.

The Prime Minister's attempt to square the US-Europe circle has not been helped by the conflicting public messages emerging from the Bush administration. There are striking parallels with the period before the war, with Mr Blair joining forces with Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, in pushing for a role for the UN, against strong opposition from the hawks, led by Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary.

Mr Blair believes he convinced President Bush of the need to involve the UN in Iraq when the two held their mid-

Atlantic summit in the Azores on 16 March. He now wants the President to commit himself to something that Britain can "sell" to France, Germany and Russia, who want a significant UN role. "Both America and the Europeans will have to give a little ground," one British minister said yesterday. "But it shouldn't be beyond us." France, Germany and Russia do not want any UN resolution to "legitimise" the war. "The bruises are still there. You don't heal these things overnight. The ice is melting – slowly," one British official said last night.

Mr Blair is anxious to avoid the impression that the victors in Iraq will share the spoils. "The crucial thing is that we leave Iraq a better place than when we moved in. That is how the world will judge us," one Blair aide said.

The United Nations' role is only one part of the picture. The discussions at Hillsborough Castle will also focus on "sequencing" – the timescale for the three stages envisaged when the war ends. The first would be an administration run by Jay Garner, a retired US general who heads the Pentagon's Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance. The second would be an interim authority, with the third a full-scale, democratically elected government.

Britain envisages stage one lasting for three months but the Pentagon is looking at six. Mr Blair is pushing for a compromise under which the proposed interim authority would run alongside General Garner's administration for the final three months of its six months in charge.

Another crucial issue is how the interim government would be chosen. Mr Blair is keen to ensure the outside world does not get the impression of a victorious US imposing its placemen to create a puppet regime.

With regards to the Middle East and the proposed "road-map", Mr Blair believes lessons can be learnt from Northern Ireland. His spokesman said: "What Northern Ireland shows, while we do not take anything for granted, is that if you work at a process, if you continue to work at the difficulties, you can overcome those difficulties.

"In Northern Ireland, what we have seen is real progress and we are at the stage of completion. It takes time, yes it takes patience, but progress can be achieved."

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