Moment of truth for the assisted dying bill: all you need to know

After much debate, the bill to legalise suicide for terminally ill adults faces its critical House of Commons vote on Friday. John Rentoul looks at what might happen

Kim Leadbeater, the Labour MP who came top in the private members’ bill ballot last year, and was therefore given a chance of getting her own law onto the statute book, is “confident” that her Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill will complete its Commons stages on Friday.

The bill has been through an arduous and often bad-tempered journey since MPs voted to give it the go-ahead in principle in November by 330 votes to 275, a majority of 55.

It was debated by a committee of MPs in 29 sittings between January and March. The committee considered 500 amendments and about one-third were agreed.

The bill came back to the Commons last Friday, when further amendments were debated. Tomorrow will be its last day in the Commons, when more amendments will be debated and a final vote held. If it passes, it will then go to the House of Lords.

How has the bill been amended?

The main change is that, instead of a court having to approve a request, supported by two doctors, for an assisted death, it will be decided by a panel consisting of a lawyer, a consultant psychiatrist and a social worker.

Other amendments include:

• requiring the doctors assessing assisted dying requests to have undertaken detailed training on domestic abuse, including coercive control and financial abuse;

• making independent advocates available for those who “may experience substantial difficulty in understanding the processes or information relevant” to the assisted dying process; and

• increasing the commencement period from two years to four years in England, meaning that the majority of the bill’s provisions must be implemented within four years of the bill becoming law.

Is the bill going to pass?

Almost certainly. The majority of 55 in November was larger than expected, and although some MPs have changed their minds since then, it seems unlikely that there are 28 of them – the number required to change the outcome. Indeed, some of those changing their minds have gone from abstaining last time to supporting the bill, saying that they are now satisfied with the safeguards in the bill.

Campaigners on both sides of the assisted dying debate outside parliament earlier this year (PA)

However, it is MPs switching from support or a neutral position to opposition who tend to attract the most attention. Four Labour MPs who supported the bill in November but who will vote against it tomorrow have written to their colleagues urging them to do the same. “This is not a normal bill,” they write. “It fundamentally alters the relationship between doctor and patient. It strips power away from parliament and concentrates it in the hands of future health secretaries.”

They conclude: “The bill before us simply does not do enough to safeguard people who may want to choose to live.”

The opposition from outside parliament has been forceful. Some MPs are particularly disconcerted by the Royal College of Psychiatrists, which continues to oppose the bill. Although it says it is not opposed to the principle of assisted dying, it is worried about the implications for mental health and says that there are not enough consultant psychiatrists to sit on the expert panels.

Even so, Leadbeater’s confidence appears to be justified.

Where do cabinet ministers stand?

Assisted dying is an issue of conscience, and so by convention, the government has allowed a free vote. The government does not have a view on the issue, and collective ministerial responsibility does not apply. That means that some ministers will vote in favour and some against.

Seven ministers who attend cabinet are opposed to the bill: Darren Jones, David Lammy, Shabana Mahmood, Bridget Phillipson, Angela Rayner, Jonathan Reynolds and Wes Streeting. Streeting has changed his mind: he said last year that the poor state of NHS palliative care meant that he could not support the bill.

All the rest support the bill, including the prime minister, who reaffirmed his support this week – apart from Ian Murray, the Scottish secretary, who will not vote on the grounds that the issue is devolved. The Scottish parliament voted for a similar bill at its first stage last month.