Boris Johnson’s mini reshuffle is about campaigning rather than governing

It is a sign that – for the immediate future at least – the government’s attentions will inevitably be turned inwards, writes Sean O’Grady

The prime minister clearly wants a more effective operation in place to bolster his leadership (AP)

There is no clearer signal of a party leadership in deep trouble than the appointment of a new chief whip.

At such times of personal crisis there is no position more important – not even that of the chancellor of the exchequer – or so vital to a leader’s survival.

If the stories are to be believed, it appears that Boris Johnson would judge it a success if he made it to the end of the week without a vote of confidence being called by his own side. It is hand-to-hand combat, and that’s where a good chief whip can excel, making sure every single backbencher is persuaded to support the prime minister.

They will be reminded that he delivered Brexit; that he virtually invented the Covid-19 vaccines (or at least took as much credit as he could for their rollout); and that he gave many of the MPs in question their seats in the 2019 election. Ambitions will be flattered, promotions promised, and disappointments salved, with hopes of reinstatement and hints of honours for public service.

There is a lot riding on Chris Heaton-Harris, the new chief whip. He has done the job once before, albeit in the much less pressured environment of the European parliament; he is also a football referee, and will thus presumably be used to vulgar abuse. More than anything, he is loyal.

The now former chief whip, Mark Spencer, was no less loyal, but has had an unhappy time of it. He was part of the group that hatched the disastrous plan to save Owen Paterson from parliamentary censure last year, only to find themselves generating a much more serious scandal. That saga inflicted serious damage on the prime minister and his party, long before the Partygate revelations tumbled out of Downing Street, blinking in the glare of unwelcome publicity. It was the beginning of the end.

So Spencer’s luck in No 10 had probably run out even before he was accused of making an Islamophobic remark to the Conservative MP Nusrat Ghani when she was sacked in a previous reshuffle. Spencer has called the accusations “completely false”, claiming that he has “never used those words attributed to me”. He is now set to replace Jacob Rees-Mogg as leader of the House of Commons, a role that includes responsibility for standards of behaviour in Westminster. Labour has called the move “completely inappropriate”.

In any case, the prime minister clearly wants a more effective operation in place to bolster his leadership, especially in case he is subjected to a vote of no confidence (which is looking increasingly likely).

As John Major and Theresa May discovered before him, Johnson knows that it is not enough merely to win a vote of confidence with, say, 100 or MPs dissenting, relying on the “payroll” to scrape through. To restore his full authority and reset his premiership, Mr Johnson must be seen to win big. Without doing so, he will be a lame duck premier at best.

Heaton-Harris’s task, aside from working through “the usual channels” to get parliamentary business done, is nothing less than to rescue Johnson’s premiership. With the recently announced network of Conservative backbenchers advising on policy, Heaton-Harris will be expected to do a better job of reflecting backbench opinion to the leadership. He, along with his new deputy and the new chief of staff Steve Barclay (who is to continue as a minister), will be expected to repair the ruptured relationship between Johnson and his MPs. As leader of the House of Commons, Spencer will be expected to play a more auxiliary role in “Operation Save Big Dog”.

In a series of other appointments, No 10, the Cabinet Office and the whips are being meshed together in a Prime Minister’s Office. It is a significant lump of machinery at the personal disposal of the prime minister, a little presidential in scope.

Johnson has thus learnt at least one lesson from history: that of the importance of an efficient whipping operation to political survival. For a few weeks, for whatever reason, No 10 was trying to run its own parallel whipping operation. Now, things should be more streamlined and rational. The whips will be authorised to offer whatever inducements – or possible penalties – are necessary to change minds and build support for Johnson. There may be more knighthoods than usual for disgruntled ex-ministers in the next honours list.

The shuffling of Jacob Rees-Mogg is also an interesting move. As a devout Brexiteer possessed of an almost mystical zeal, he is superficially the ideal candidate to be the minister for Brexit opportunities and government efficiency, arguably the first doubly oxymoronic office of state. He may reassure the many Eurosceptics in the party that Global Britain really is about to be unleashed. His replacement as leader of the house may be expected to join the team shoring up Johnson’s backing among MPs.

Courteous as he is supposed to be, Rees-Mogg has been remarkably rude to some on his own side in recent weeks, not least in his description of the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Douglas Ross, as a “lightweight”. Perhaps still more embarrassing was his failure to recall the name of the leader of the Welsh Conservatives – so poor Andrew RT Davies is not memorable enough to enjoy the status of “lightweight”. “JRM” is hardly an asset to the unionist cause.

Rees-Mogg is a man who spent his time as leader of the house insulting the opposition, rather than acting – as he should have – as a sort of shock-absorber between the executive and the legislature. He also played a prominent role in the doomed plot to save Owen Paterson. His honeyed, elegant, dismissive put-downs won’t be missed in the chamber, though he’ll be a loss to the BBC’s Newsnight, where he was becoming a bit of a celebrity regular.

So this mini reshuffle is even more “political” than most. It is less about governing, and more about campaigning – territory the prime minister has always found more congenial. It is a sign that, for the immediate future at least, the government’s attentions will inevitably be turned inwards and focused on “Operation Save Big Dog”. If the opinion polls and Johnson’s ratings remain as dismal as they are, though, it may be too late.