Why has another French government collapsed – and what happens now?

As France loses its fifth prime minister in two years, Sean O’Grady explains the latest crisis and what Emmanuel Macron can do – if anything – to reset politics

It was Charles de Gaulle, French wartime hero and president more than half a century ago, who once exclaimed in exasperation: “How can anyone govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese?” His words come to mind as another prime minister, Francois Bayrou, falls from power, the fifth in two years, and another round of legislative elections beckons. Worse still, there is no realistic prospect of the crisis subsiding…

Why has the French government fallen this time?

The proximate reason is that, like his recent predecessors, Bayrou failed to get a budget through the parliament. Two weeks ago, he told the badly divided assembly there’d be a vote of confidence on 8 September. He was looking for €44bn (£38bn) in spending cuts, including a freeze in the welfare budget and abolishing two national bank holidays. The intention was to concentrate minds and loosen party loyalties in the national interest, but it didn’t work.

The parliament is deadlocked between five main groupings who will seemingly never cooperate, no matter how dire the situation. They are: National Rally, led by Marine le Pen and her protege Jordan Bardella; socialists headed by Olivier Faure; Les Republicains, comparable to Britain’s Conservatives; the hard left under the flinty veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon (a kind of French Corbyn); and various centrists including Bayrou’s Democratic Movement and Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party (formerly La Republique En Marche!).

French PM Francois Bayrou addresses the National Assembly on Monday prior to a parliamentary confidence vote that failed to save his job (AP)

Is that all?

Mais non. Behind the budget crisis lies a deeper economic and demographic crisis. France’s ageing population and still relatively generous welfare state, as well as the private sector perks enjoyed by the middle classes in secure jobs, are making the country uncompetitive and undermining international confidence. Bond yields are rising, ominously, suggesting France is encountering problems financing itself. Such is the scale of the seemingly intractable fiscal imbalance that the cost of servicing the national debt is up to €66bn a year – more than the defence or education budgets – and the debt to GDP ratio stands at 114 per cent. Parallel to all that is a continuing migrant crisis.

Sounds familiar?

Yes, and it is as if the French had decided to make the British feel better about themselves by laying on a pantomime that makes the UK seem like a model of national unity and fiscal rectitude by comparison. Governments across Europe, in fact, have had to grapple with similar social and economic challenges, exacerbated to varying degrees by the fracturing of traditional party loyalties and the rise of uncompromising “insurgents”, mostly on the far right with a vested interest in chaos.

Is Macron safe?

Yes and no. Unlike British premiers and German chancellors, the French president is not an MP; he says he will remain in office, and any fresh elections will be only for the legislature, not the presidency. Macron can dissolve parliament, but it cannot get rid of him. There is no need for the president to quit until his current (second) term of office runs out in 2027; after that, he cannot stand again until 2032, when he’ll still only be 55. The constitution puts Macron firmly in charge of foreign and defence affairs – but he still needs a budget. If things become unstable or the government “closes down” for lack of funds, it could force Macron’s hand, either to rule by decree or order fresh elections – or quit.

What happens next?

Macron may ask parliament to nominate yet another prime minister, and the gridlock will drag on. He could try to invoke Article 49 of the French constitution in order to overrule parliament; this is what he did in 2023 to impose an increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64, though that was a parliamentary bill and the then-government survived a vote of no confidence.

Last June, ironically with no crisis to force the matter, Macron called a snap parliamentary election simply because his party had suffered a heavy defeat in European parliamentary elections and he thought he could beat Le Pen in a domestic contest and reassert his authority. It was a gamble that failed. Having already lost his majority in the regular parliamentary election in 2022, his party suffered further heavy losses and finished behind Faure’s broad left New Popular Front coalition.

If fresh elections are held now, the chances are that Macron’s supporting parties will lose even more seats and National Rally will further strengthen its position – though not sufficiently to gain an overall majority. So the ‘immobilisme’ will continue, broken only by the use of exceptional powers granted to Macron by the French constitution (the constitution of the Fifth Republic, devised by de Gaulle in 1958 as his attempt to answer the cheese question). The first real opportunity to “reset” French politics will only come with a presidential election, either called early by Macron or in April 2027. Oddly, given the intensity of their recent battles, neither Macron (constitutionally) nor Le Pen (because of a criminal conviction for embezzlement) will be candidates.