Will the Israel-Hamas war be a factor in the Rochdale by-election for Labour?

Both Labour and the Conservatives face tests over their policies and the popularity of their leaders during this month’s three big by-elections, writes Zoe Grunewald

Labour candidate Azhar Ali is standing in the Rochdale by-election, which was triggered by the death of sitting MP Sir Tony Lloyd (PA)

Over the past weeks, Rishi Sunak has faced mounting pressure from his party. Warnings have been sounded from within and outside of his party about the Conservatives’ electoral prospects. Rival factions have launched a concerted effort to push the prime minister towards a rightward shift, while the Labour Party holds a strong 20-point lead.

But while opinion polls and Conservative navel-gazing provide insights, they remain speculative until tested. Over the next few weeks, a handful of by-elections will provide a more substantial understanding of how each of the parties are faring in the electorate’s estimations.

By-elections are complex, and their outcomes are often influenced by a myriad of local factors. But the results are still likely to pile pressure on the two main parties as they become testing grounds for the popularity of their policies and leaders.