What are the Tories’ chances of winning the London mayoral election?

It is too late to change their candidate so the party must hope Susan Hall can deliver a miracle, says Sean O’Grady

Tory mayoral candidate Susan Hall is gunning for Sadiq Khan (Stefan Rousseau/PA)

Local and mayoral elections on 2 May, combined with yet another parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South, will provide the best possible picture of the standing of the parties – in most of England and Wales, at least.

Millions of real votes in ballot boxes will either confirm or confound the opinion polls. It will be another important test of Rishi Sunak’s leadership; there is speculation that a truly disastrous result for his party might trigger a vote of confidence in him, with the possible consequence that he’d call an immediate general election and take his case to the British people as early as June. Of the many discouraging results the Conservatives seem to be headed for, perhaps the worst of all will be in London. It is fair to say that, even in a generally difficult period for the Tories, London stands out as an object lesson in how not to do politics…

How bad are things in London for the Tories?